tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post1360903028247635590..comments2024-03-27T23:59:49.801+00:00Comments on Stoat: Minor note re IPCC 1990 fig 7.1(c)William M. Connolleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-8214421147702909872019-03-13T16:56:37.596+00:002019-03-13T16:56:37.596+00:00Lamb mixes, yes, though I think it was all largely...Lamb mixes, yes, though I think it was all largely hand-drawn rather than computed. And I think the adjustments were more "well, it feels to me like this is a bit much, so I'll tone it down by a few tenths". Which is to say, exactly the kind of thing the denialists would whine loudly about if it were done nowadays.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-15763525231929456292019-03-13T16:52:04.467+00:002019-03-13T16:52:04.467+00:00Back on the direct topic, am I wrong in thinking t...Back on the direct topic, am I wrong in thinking the Lamb curve also splices proxy/documentary data with instrumental?<br /><br />Also, kind of crazy to see Lamb still cited as support for a substantial global MWP when it shows a hump which is off by about 200 years from recent hemispheric/extratropical reconstructions which "skeptics" also accept. But what does 200 years matter I guess...PaulSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-71493581848363022142019-03-13T16:44:23.674+00:002019-03-13T16:44:23.674+00:00My theory for both skeptics and climate activists ...My theory for both skeptics and climate activists is that they (my detractors would change that to 'we') drift into and out of rational positions in sort of a Brownian movement, often dictated by the outrage of the day. Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-45801836724701592142019-03-13T16:22:26.531+00:002019-03-13T16:22:26.531+00:00> that's always the initial claim
Indeed. ...> that's always the initial claim<br /><br />Indeed. And what I was trying to say to that, in my best effort at reconstructing their "thinking" or strategy, is that always claiming adjustments cause warming is a win-win. Some people will just believe it: you win those people. Others won't, but can then be drawn into "but, adjustments" and they can win those people too. The sane people who know adjustments are needed are not part of their target demographic.<br /><br />> understand this part of the skeptical argument<br /><br />I think that's because you're not distinguishing skeptical and "skeptical". The former being genuine (as-in, what every decent scientist is anyway) skepticism, whereas the latter is non-genuine and shades into denialism. As your "When directly asked, most skeptics I know acknowledge this" suggests, I think "skeptics" who haven't gone over wholeheartedly into the denialst phase are capable of being pulled back, when asked in a way that allows them to evaluate what they're saying clearly. But most of them aren't really thinking clearly, and so will drift off into the wings, when in "congenial" company.<br />William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-79484707897476928742019-03-13T16:02:16.930+00:002019-03-13T16:02:16.930+00:00I don't really understand this part of the ske...I don't really understand this part of the skeptical argument. They don't seem to be arguing that there is no warming. They don't even seem to be arguing that data doesn't need adjusting--when new information becomes available about station moves or time of day changes, it should be incorporated into the record.<br /><br />When directly asked, most skeptics I know acknowledge this. I even think most would accept that more information would become available about older records than newer...<br /><br />I think they just don't like the shape of the curve, which is I guess understandable.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-479970733193688722019-03-13T13:22:01.846+00:002019-03-13T13:22:01.846+00:00I don't think the denialists care a great deal...<i>I don't think the denialists care a great deal about whether the adjustments really warm or cool.</i><br /><br />I really don't think that's the case. If they have any residual sense in them they may (temporarily) back down on an initial claim about adjustments increasing the trend when proven wrong, and move the goalposts to an alternative (much more vague) contrarian argument so as not to openly concede a point. But, as you say, the initial claim was that adjustments create warming, because that's <i>always</i> the initial claim. It's not like there's an even distribution of "adjustments create cooling" and "adjustments create warming" headlines on denialist blogs. It's 100% "adjustments create warming".PaulSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-64939567963856420762019-03-12T21:02:01.147+00:002019-03-12T21:02:01.147+00:00I don't think the denialists care a great deal...I don't think the denialists care a great deal about whether the adjustments really warm or cool. They'll talk about them increasing the trend overall, but if proved wrong on that, don't really care and will happily switch to "oh but you admit there are adjustments and that's just not the right thing to do" and so on. For casual conversation it's a fine strategy.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-33706528927232741412019-03-12T20:33:19.159+00:002019-03-12T20:33:19.159+00:00"My late father was eight years old and livin..."My late father was eight years old and living not far from Rutherglen on 13 January 1939. He remembered the hot wind blowing from the north-west on that day. I grew up with his memories of that time. My father described hot and hungry years – just as John Steinbeck described farm life in the mid-west of the US in the 1930s in his famous ‘Grapes of Wrath’. There was hardship, and there were dust storms in the US and also in south-eastern Australia.<br /><br />Indeed, in rural Victoria, the summer of 1938-1939 was on average at least two degrees hotter than anything measured with equivalent equipment since.<br /><br />Yet Minister Price denies this history – my late father’s history."<br /><br />Kind of like saying what were you great-grandparents doing when you read that Lincoln died.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-85392157818211276162019-03-12T15:16:11.417+00:002019-03-12T15:16:11.417+00:00Not entirely sure you're comparing apples to a...Not entirely sure you're comparing apples to apples here, but in any case...<br /><br />Hi Matt, I believe that the new-ish complaint from the skeptical side of the aisle is that yes indeed, adjustments lower overall warming by a fraction, but disproportionate cooling from earlier years makes the overall warming look extremer than in fact it has been. I know that constitutes a fair bit of Ms. Marohasy's claim.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-70468684721510301692019-03-11T21:14:46.136+00:002019-03-11T21:14:46.136+00:00Surprised* the 'dodgy adjustments' narrati...Surprised* the 'dodgy adjustments' narrative has survived so well given the net effect of adjustments is to lower the amount of warming.<br /><br />The response is often "these are the adjustments and here are the reasons for them". Wonder whether leaving all that out and just saying temperature change is adjusted downwards would be better at convincing 'skeptics'/undecided.<br />*only a littleAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13637756483122031663noreply@blogger.com