tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post3030939303331322626..comments2024-03-27T23:59:49.801+00:00Comments on Stoat: Economists greatly underestimate the price tag on harsher weather and higher seas. Why is that?William M. Connolleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-44793027013529991392019-10-31T02:19:01.815+00:002019-10-31T02:19:01.815+00:00On Uluru (Ayers rock) - all of us have some pretty...On Uluru (Ayers rock) - all of us have some pretty fixed ideas about what general public are allowed to do on our private property. I am not lost on randoms climbing on the roof of my house for instance. Ownership was returned to Pitantjatjara in 1985 and I believe that they are asserting their property rights. On other hand, I am not an Australian so may be misinformed.PhilScaddenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05937238628676275303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-43705845753162521822019-10-30T16:01:34.790+00:002019-10-30T16:01:34.790+00:00Ah yes well fair comment then. I'm afraid I...Ah yes well fair comment then. I'm afraid I'll still be using the K-work and perhaps even the C-word, but probably not the A-word.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-87850799486835292052019-10-30T11:05:11.479+00:002019-10-30T11:05:11.479+00:00Sorry - I was referring to your casual use of raci...Sorry - I was referring to your casual use of racist language. Having been a long time reader of your blog I'd prefer if you didn't descend into full Boris.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-30308354639755745462019-10-30T10:54:14.511+00:002019-10-30T10:54:14.511+00:00Hard to believe but yes it does seem to be true, e...Hard to believe but yes it does seem to be true, e.g. <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/uluru-celebrates-climbers-permanently-banned-12039164" rel="nofollow">https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/uluru-celebrates-climbers-permanently-banned-12039164</a>.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-5135489879044390452019-10-30T10:50:58.096+00:002019-10-30T10:50:58.096+00:00'the Abos won't even let people climb Ayer...'the Abos won't even let people climb Ayer's rock'<br />Seriously? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-65288008323238373832019-10-29T03:31:56.406+00:002019-10-29T03:31:56.406+00:00Seasonal.
Halloween galaxies:
https://m.phys.org/...Seasonal.<br /><br />Halloween galaxies:<br />https://m.phys.org/news/2019-10-hubble-captures-cosmic.html<br /><br />Does this resemble Boris? David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-5833526020439911592019-10-28T14:30:13.683+00:002019-10-28T14:30:13.683+00:00I was thinking more in terms of idiots like Trump ...I was thinking more in terms of idiots like Trump not putting tariffs on them.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-51462924562208877032019-10-28T13:58:20.710+00:002019-10-28T13:58:20.710+00:00"Then there's a need for better tech (e.g..."Then there's a need for better tech (e.g. solar panels)..."<br /><br />I see that perhaps something I've written has slightly sunk in. Technology research, development and ramping up is the priority for the recent past and for now. Not just the research but subsidies until economy of scale has been achieved. Remember the declining cost curve, and notice these new technologies are head to head with long established technologies.<br /><br />Carbon tax doesn't help until close to cost parity. Nice idea for the future, and the day is getting closer. Right now is too expensive, and not politically realistic. More efficient than subsidies, yes, but when dealing with small alternatives then lower cost is more important than higher efficiency.<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-19927863436604681192019-10-28T09:54:15.788+00:002019-10-28T09:54:15.788+00:00Mnay things "should" be done. Most obvio...Mnay things "should" be done. Most obviously, people should be convinced there's a problem there to be solved, and useful information such as this blog are a part of that.<br /><br />Then there's a need for better tech (e.g. solar panels) so that the shift from fossil fuels can ocur without too much pain.<br /><br />Large-scale landscape changes might be good too but are likely to encouter opposition: the Abos won't even let people climb Ayer's rock, so are likely to consider reafforestation askance; the Sahara is politically unstable. Since we're talking about that, simple good governance would go a long way to helping, too.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-5778994407177913212019-10-27T23:09:10.744+00:002019-10-27T23:09:10.744+00:00Irrigated Afforestation of the Sahara desert and t...Irrigated Afforestation of the Sahara desert and the Australian outback.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15914145623997712113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-16836586555280419202019-10-27T17:51:03.133+00:002019-10-27T17:51:03.133+00:00What should be done about climate change other tha...What should be done about climate change other than a carbon tax?Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-21323416552881638052019-10-27T14:20:01.443+00:002019-10-27T14:20:01.443+00:00Incentives aren't everything, but incentives m...Incentives aren't everything, but incentives matter.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-27126923158930255072019-10-27T09:37:01.163+00:002019-10-27T09:37:01.163+00:00Probably some people think that but I don't kn...Probably some people think that but I don't know of any such people, nor can I think of any writings that would say that.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-7271631045880702722019-10-27T01:38:26.764+00:002019-10-27T01:38:26.764+00:00
Some people seem to think that only economic ince...<br />Some people seem to think that only economic incentives are important. Like, say a carbon tax.<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-90263220146712745922019-10-26T17:00:27.341+00:002019-10-26T17:00:27.341+00:00You'd expect a nobel laureate to be a more com...You'd expect a nobel laureate to be a more competent economist (but see-also <a href="https://www.econlib.org/the-latest-nobel-prize-in-economics/" rel="nofollow">Econlib</a>); "financial incentives are the primary driver of human behavior" is I think wrong; incentives certainly are, but why you'd restrict consideration to financial ones only is hard to understand.<br /><br />As to what they mean by "just" or "justice", this is far from clear. They juxtapose it with "real suffering" so I must imply that they think that real suffering is unjust, which is nonsense.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-15965794210266624492019-10-26T14:30:53.496+00:002019-10-26T14:30:53.496+00:00I'd guess Google might reference my statement ...I'd guess Google might reference my statement as well.<br />But notice that, while I rule out growth for millenia, I didn't answer the question.<br /><br />The problem is that the question has too many unknowns. Google can find opinions, not answers. Look at the opinions and consider what wasn't considered.<br /><br /><br />Oh, and for Stoat:<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/26/opinion/sunday/duflo-banerjee-economic-incentives.html<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-5697106768795275352019-10-25T18:14:52.881+00:002019-10-25T18:14:52.881+00:00And then there is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/...And then there is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Footprint_NetworkAndy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-79292149352480046442019-10-25T18:10:46.597+00:002019-10-25T18:10:46.597+00:00"How much can be consumed isn't a questio..."How much can be consumed isn't a question that Google can answer."<br /><br />Really? I Googled and found this in 2 minutes: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52005DC0670<br /><br />From 2. EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT POLICY AND RESOURCE USE – PROBLEMS AND POLICY RESPONSES<br /><br />"Despite these improvements, increased production volumes have often outpaced any overall environmental improvements or efficiency gains and current policies have not been sufficient to reverse fundamentally unsustainable trends either in Europe or globally."<br /><br />A bit more Googling and I found this which sounds more optimistic: https://www.resourcepanel.org/reports/global-resources-outlook<br /><br />A Historical Trends scenario shows that the current trajectory of natural resource use and management is unsustainable, while a Towards Sustainability scenario shows that implementing resource efficiency and sustainable consumption and production policies promotes stronger economic growth, improves well-being, helps to support more equal distribution of income and reduces resource use across countries<br /><br />Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-76065049313882612652019-10-25T14:49:22.696+00:002019-10-25T14:49:22.696+00:00How much can be consumed isn't a question that...How much can be consumed isn't a question that Google can answer. Far too complex, far too many unknowns.<br /><br />So how might we bracket the unknowns?<br /><br />Start with NPP, net primary production. Plants fix carbon, and humans consume plants. Humans can't consume 100% of NPP, the plants need to live. And other ecosystems services require energy as well. Yet think of that as the limit. The human appropriation of net primary production can't exceed 100%.<br /><br />Humans currently consume about 25% of NPP. Here Google might help. For example:<br /><br />https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1911196/<br /><br />This ignores the use of fossil carbon for power. Current HANPP is around 16 Pg C/yr. Current fossil fuel use is around 8 Pg C/year. Production of biofuels is fairly lossy with current technologies, so replacing fossil energy with biofuels isn't realistic, even if the efficiency could be raised.<br /><br /><br />Yet Google can't help with these questions. Is our current consumption too much? Maybe. So could we double our consumption? Maybe. Two doublings? Almost for sure, no. Is the limit millennia in the future? Only if future growth is very slow. What is the future growth in HANPP?<br /><br />This ignores possible technologies, such as solar -> electric -> fixed carbon -> human foods. The first we are doing on a modest scale today, and the efficiency is far higher than photosynthesis. Electric power to fixed carbon has been done on tiny scales, and I've not heard of any human food production this way. Yet it is technically possible. Potentially this might allow more than an order of magnitude increase in the human consumption, by substituting 30% efficient solar cells for 1-2% efficient chlorophyll. Consider such a world, with the fields, forests and pastures covered in solar cells, factories consuming atmospheric CO2 and electric power turning out eatable oils, starches and proteins, and vast cities. As Don Henley sang in "Hotel California", "And I was thinking to myself, this could be heaven or this could be hell." Yet even this wouldn't allow for millennia of 2% growth. 1.02^1000 is 398,000,000<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-40546532092306762262019-10-25T06:40:24.493+00:002019-10-25T06:40:24.493+00:00As your post indicates a belief the planet has an ...As your post indicates a belief the planet has an infinite capacity to absorb/ignore humanity's impact on it, I will avoid wasting my time by suggesting you use Google.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-87245268087895466112019-10-24T21:00:31.927+00:002019-10-24T21:00:31.927+00:00Mr. Mitchell, as I hold a completely opposite view...Mr. Mitchell, as I hold a completely opposite view, I hope I can be forgiven for asking when and by how much humans started consuming more than in sustainable.<br /><br />It is not that I believe there are no limits to safe consumption. It's more that I think we are in the position of someone who started digging for China five minutes ago and is worrying about what he/she will find on the other side. That is to say the limits are far in the future--perhaps millenia.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-15671249679746101632019-10-24T20:04:31.944+00:002019-10-24T20:04:31.944+00:00Didn't we reach a tipping point when humans st...Didn't we reach a tipping point when humans started consuming more than the planet can sustainably produce? The rest is just time.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-12771378451425024432019-10-24T15:02:06.895+00:002019-10-24T15:02:06.895+00:00Well, if I can live with "circumspect" y...Well, if I can live with "circumspect" you can live with semi-good :-).William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-58993602286538544442019-10-24T14:56:14.289+00:002019-10-24T14:56:14.289+00:00There's a semi-good-point:
Thanks :-)
the pr...<i>There's a semi-good-point:</i><br /><br />Thanks :-)<br /><br /><i>the problem is that this idea doesn't go anywhere other than "we should think about it".</i><br /><br />Fair enough; I don't really have any good ideas as to how to take this further. It probably is a very tricky problem to address. We don't really have a set of non-linear equations that describe the time evolution of society....and Then There's Physicshttp://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-66606606717577300302019-10-24T14:47:34.837+00:002019-10-24T14:47:34.837+00:00Revisiting and defending past claims and publicati...Revisiting and defending past claims and publications is getting more common 15 years on. So with Stern, so with Nepstad... in other fields this has happened just prior to those claims being abandoned.<br /><br />Discount rates exist for a reason and are established using past performance as a guideline. No guarantees that they're perfect, but they're quite literally better than 'nothing, or zero as it is so quaintly put.'Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.com