tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post3432799150996662860..comments2024-03-27T23:59:49.801+00:00Comments on Stoat: Have we reached peak CO2 emissions yet?William M. Connolleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-32529563549201275122022-12-16T18:30:09.329+00:002022-12-16T18:30:09.329+00:00I'll bear it in mind if anything that seems to...I'll bear it in mind if anything that seems to fit crops up.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-13161304368822943952022-12-15T13:35:35.289+00:002022-12-15T13:35:35.289+00:00If what you say is true, I'm up for a double o...If what you say is true, I'm up for a double or quits. Something climatey... emissions rising further? global temps reached with the next El Nino? Anterosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-25538868826666530082022-12-13T19:03:30.381+00:002022-12-13T19:03:30.381+00:00If that is the case, can I tempt you into a double...If that is the case, can I tempt you into a double or quits? I can't think of anything suitable at the mo' but I quite like having a bet running. Adds a little frisson to life. <br /><br />Something climatey would suit me. Global temps reached during the next El Nino? Anterosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-34848681473573672622022-12-08T17:57:01.291+00:002022-12-08T17:57:01.291+00:00Hmmm. A thread (starting https://twitter.com/Peter...Hmmm. A thread (starting https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1600757415519322115?s=20&t=DDKQDlKW-XOmZJd2485qPQ; currently at https://twitter.com/wmconnolley/status/1600908301411094528?s=20&t=DDKQDlKW-XOmZJd2485qPQ) suggests I have indeed lost.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-1655814566640418352022-11-11T11:57:32.330+00:002022-11-11T11:57:32.330+00:00The preliminary 2022 Global Carbon Budget is out f...The preliminary 2022 Global Carbon Budget is out from the Global Carbon Project, and indicates that 2022 CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry (cement) will surpass that of both 2019 and 2021 by ~1%<br /><br />However, if you add back in land use, I think it's heading for a statistical tie - but with a lot more uncertainty, and if I recall correctly, it takes months for the GCP to publish final estimates.<br /><br />I'm just posting while I am reading the new release/coverage, and have this blogpost handy.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1590865921341816832?t=McGj9Cze2ehrve1BPEMSHg&s=19Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-6772234098998513922022-10-18T13:27:17.360+00:002022-10-18T13:27:17.360+00:00Now, do they have a plan for reducing capitas?Now, do they have a plan for reducing capitas?Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-85929068029666274662022-10-16T16:15:14.757+00:002022-10-16T16:15:14.757+00:00Anyone claiming a win on this? I've just seena...Anyone claiming a win on this? I've just seena claim that we're past <a href="https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1581543464327696390" rel="nofollow">peak emissions per capita</a>.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-76176362468925518152022-03-08T16:53:09.456+00:002022-03-08T16:53:09.456+00:00As 2021 progressed, I was thinking that my only &q...As 2021 progressed, I was thinking that my only "hope" for "winning"¹ this bet would have to rest with 2022.<br /><br />And the grim way the first quarter of 2022 has conspired to unfold seems to have put the shiv in that possibility.<br /><br />But wait?<br /><br />Did I (we) count 2021 out too early?<br /><br />IEA has just released their assessment of 2021 CO₂ emissions (from energy only)... and they are indeed above 2019.😳 (by a ~0.5% razor-thin whisker!)<br /><br />"CO2 emissions in 2021 rose to around 180 megatonnes (Mt) above the pre-pandemic level of 2019"<br /><br />Game back on?<br /><br />¹ would gladly lose this bet - and still hope to be proven wrong... Just getting the early returns from the mid-way point posted.🤷<br /><br />https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2tidalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08979480547719289608noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-53232852166659441962021-01-20T15:54:26.410+00:002021-01-20T15:54:26.410+00:00It is always worthwhile trying to find actual numb...It is always worthwhile trying to find actual numbers.<br /><br />Based on total registration:<br />EU has 688k BEVs.<br />EU has about 48 million vehicles.<br /><br />So about 1.4%, as of 2019<br /><br />Source is http://ev-registrations.com/<br /><br />Might be 2% now.<br /><br />In any case, not yet a major factor. Maybe in 5 years or 10 years.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-76914482147339564672021-01-19T15:40:50.350+00:002021-01-19T15:40:50.350+00:00I believe fleet life in developed countries hovers...I believe fleet life in developed countries hovers between 11 and 16 years, so conversion could be a bit quicker than perhaps you think, Phil. Really will depend on carrots (subsidies and 'cash for clunkers') and sticks (punitive taxes on ICE).Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-47040076714267334922021-01-17T17:49:41.777+00:002021-01-17T17:49:41.777+00:00EU electric car sales are up to 10% of total sales...EU electric car sales are up to 10% of total sales. USA is about 2%<br /><br />As a car is a long lived asset, perhaps 1% of the cars on the road in the EU are EVs.<br /><br />EVs are not going to make a significant decrease in the carbon fuel use for years, perhaps decade.<br /><br />Solar and wind are making a larger impact.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-21624046560730474412021-01-16T03:48:05.525+00:002021-01-16T03:48:05.525+00:00*Very* preliminary CO₂ emissions data for 2020. (F...*Very* preliminary CO₂ emissions data for 2020. (From new-kid-on-the-block CarbonMonitor, not GCP, etc.) <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00090-3" rel="nofollow">COVID curbed carbon emissions in 2020 — but not by much</a><br /><br />Jeff Tollefson, Nature, 15 JANUARY 2021<br /><br />"Despite sharp drops early in the pandemic, global emissions of carbon dioxide picked up in the second half of the year, new data show." <br />[...]<br />"Researchers published emissions data for the first half of 2020 in October1, but provided a complete set to Nature this week."tidalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08979480547719289608noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-27007912907279059722021-01-07T16:24:02.313+00:002021-01-07T16:24:02.313+00:00Sounds OK.Sounds OK.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-86880610367588056042021-01-06T19:28:46.255+00:002021-01-06T19:28:46.255+00:00Ok, fair enough. Will 100M tons of clear CO2 betwe...Ok, fair enough. Will 100M tons of clear CO2 between the years be sufficient? <br />Anteroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356962920068418592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-36878350802861587242021-01-06T18:23:15.810+00:002021-01-06T18:23:15.810+00:00I did the same with the sea ice bets. I don't ...I did the same with the sea ice bets. I don't think that winning by 0.00001% or the thickness of a line on a plot should count.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-88802219328015763732021-01-06T12:59:16.049+00:002021-01-06T12:59:16.049+00:00I'm not sure I agree (in fact I'm fairly s...I'm not sure I agree (in fact I'm fairly sure I don't) with the vagueness around 'close'. It's extremely likely to be close, and quite likely to be extremely close, so surely - if we're interested in getting a result one way or another - we should specify a dataset and live with the result. I'd much rather lose by a whisker than have the bet voided by the existence of some dataset somewhere that produced a contrary result. Anteroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356962920068418592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-80294771005312968082021-01-05T20:15:54.962+00:002021-01-05T20:15:54.962+00:00OK, so, I have formalised the bets in the body of ...OK, so, I have formalised the bets in the body of the blog; and lest I cheat, there's an <a href="https://archive.is/NNRWy" rel="nofollow">archive of it</a>.<br /><br />Tom (and others): yes, I'll have to remember to monitor progress at each year's end.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-59485659960539658102021-01-05T19:30:54.196+00:002021-01-05T19:30:54.196+00:00I agree with Tidal about using the Global Carbon P...I agree with Tidal about using the Global Carbon Project data (tho' I, too, am easy...)<br />Anteroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356962920068418592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-72869766268952116382021-01-05T19:00:56.170+00:002021-01-05T19:00:56.170+00:00WMC, can we rely on you to update us all on progre...WMC, can we rely on you to update us all on progress? I tend to forget I have placed a wager...Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-71418805051159946402021-01-03T21:06:40.947+00:002021-01-03T21:06:40.947+00:00They are using the (final) Global Carbon Project n...They are using the (final) Global Carbon Project numbers for the other bet, with a backup dataset, presumably in case the GCP or its methodology changes in 10 years.<br /><br />I would be up for stipulating the GCP "Fossil CO2 Emissions" (which includes cement and flaring) as the bogey, but I am easy. <br /><br />fyi, Glen Peters shared the recent (i.e. Oct19 vs Oct20) CO2 emissions data.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/1345643056645644288?s=19<br /><br />Emissions seem to be recovering faster than the economy, already back to the same levels for power, industry and residential... tidalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08979480547719289608noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-16980671921396392212021-01-03T20:33:48.246+00:002021-01-03T20:33:48.246+00:00Gentlemanly is good... Isnt there a dataset we can...Gentlemanly is good... Isnt there a dataset we can agree to use? Doesn't the BP review include CO2 emissions? <br />If there's a dispute I'd be happy to be bound by James Annan's verdict on the matter.Anterosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-65200160008324311722021-01-03T20:10:10.111+00:002021-01-03T20:10:10.111+00:00OK, so I think so far we're at:
* Anteros: of...OK, so I think so far we're at:<br /><br />* Anteros: offers £150 (to my £100) of KC's side, up to 2023.<br />* rustneversleeps: $100 of KC's side, up to 2022.<br />* Tom: $50 of KC's side, up to 2022 (I presume).<br /><br />All bets in your preferred currency. I'm not sure exactly what we use as CO2 emissions data... we'll have to be gentlemanly about it. I propose that if it is "close" - defined in some sensible way, possibly as in different data sets give different answers - then the bets are void; they only pay if the answer is "clear".<br /><br />Anyone else?William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-45284725862049414552021-01-03T17:17:43.521+00:002021-01-03T17:17:43.521+00:00Yes, I'm in. Big time. Fifty USD okay?Yes, I'm in. Big time. Fifty USD okay?Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-19555080440736326882021-01-03T08:28:57.033+00:002021-01-03T08:28:57.033+00:00Well this is exciting - I'd better start savin...Well this is exciting - I'd better start saving my pocket money. Can I assume we're gambling pounds sterling? Note to self... If (as is plausible) I lose the bet but subsequent years exceed 2019 emissions, I shall not whinge as nobody twisted my arm into suggesting the terms of the bet. Anterosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-42476040800702825522021-01-03T04:56:15.484+00:002021-01-03T04:56:15.484+00:00I'd like to take KC's side of the bet for ...I'd like to take KC's side of the bet for a sweet $100 from your wallet, WC.<br /><br />Through 2022, including emissions from industry (roughly like to like with the number for "Fossil CO2 Emissions" in the GCP - which includes cement even if TN and KC are not (some confusion there).<br /><br />I think there will be a strong post-Covid rebound effect, especially amongst the x% who combust 50%. And I think the govt climate/infrastructure stimulus itself to build a $trillion or so worth of steel, concrete, aluminum, PV, etc. contributes to give us one last blow-off peak. Pretty sure the CO2-payback time on all that kit tilts in KC's favour as well. <br /><br /><br />Here's to hoping I am wrong!<br />George Morrison / rustneversleeps tidalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08979480547719289608noreply@blogger.com