Coby Beck now has a blog, A Few Things Ill Considered. Coby has for quite a while now been doing an excellent job on sci.env answering the assorted wackos and skeptics, and now he reveals his sekret debating techniques :-)
"Leaving aside the descents into glaciation, which were much more gradual, the very sudden (geologically speaking) jumps up in temperature every ~100Kyrs actually represent a rate of change roughly two decimal orders of magnitude less than the rate we are currently witnessing."
Strikes me as a very strong argument, just thought I'd double-check.
From graphs like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png its a bit hard to check. Deglaciations are about 10 oC locally, but more like 3-5 oC globally I think, over perhaps 3-5 kyr, depending on how you measure it. So perhaps 0.1 oC / century. We are currently at about 2 oC / century (for the last few decades) with an expected enhancement in future. So at least one order of magnitude seems reasonable; you might get up to 2. Of course this ignores http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-Oeschger_event
Thanks for the plug ;)
ReplyDeleteNow I had better get busy getting some of those posts out of the incubator! So many silly denialisms, so little time...
BTW, what did you mean with your "don't forget to visit wiki" comment?
Thanks for the tip! Is this right:
ReplyDelete"Leaving aside the descents into glaciation, which were much more gradual, the very sudden (geologically speaking) jumps up in temperature every ~100Kyrs actually represent a rate of change roughly two decimal orders of magnitude less than the rate we are currently witnessing."
Strikes me as a very strong argument, just thought I'd double-check.
From graphs like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png its a bit hard to check. Deglaciations are about 10 oC locally, but more like 3-5 oC globally I think, over perhaps 3-5 kyr, depending on how you measure it. So perhaps 0.1 oC / century. We are currently at about 2 oC / century (for the last few decades) with an expected enhancement in future. So at least one order of magnitude seems reasonable; you might get up to 2. Of course this ignores http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard-Oeschger_event
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