In a recent interview in New York Times Magazine, energy expert and polymath Vaclav Smil found himself quoting Stoat... that's not quite strictly true; what he said was "I cannot tell you that we don’t have a problem because we do have a problem. But I cannot tell you it’s the end of the world by next Monday because it is not the end of the world by next Monday. What’s the point of you pressing me to belong to one of these groups?". Which is essentially my If it isn’t catastrophic we’ve got nothing to worry about, have we? from 2014: Stoat, always leading from the front!I wouldn't trouble you with this, except it begins RP Jr's review of Unsettled by Steve Koonin (substack; arch). RP's view is that For well over a decade, the American debate over climate change has largely been a battle between two extremes: those who view climate change apocalyptically, and those castigated as deniers of climate science... Predictably, the categories map neatly onto the extremes of left-versus right politics; and that Koonin had a chance to push back on this "framing"; and (as a what we could generously regard as a side effect) RP gives us his framing. I agree that the "debate" is often largely unproductive; I'm not at all convinced that SK ever had a chance to produce a productive book because of his inbuilt biases and history. And while RP is correct to call out the quality of debate, this is cheap; and I couldn't really recommend his analysis.
This is reminiscent of Remarks by President Biden on the Continued Battle for the Soul of the Nation, which compares so unfavourably to The Gettysburg Powerpoint Presentation. The man, and all his advisers, are so partisan down to their boots that they're incapable of even seeing it.
I apply the usual "Stoat Test" to Koonin: he is a by-blow in The East is Red and All of this will soon be moot, anyway but the author of a dodgy and pointless amicus brief in the Alsup case.
Refs
* Nature: Manuscripts that are ideologically impure and “harmful” will be rejected
* O’Sullivan’s Law Has A Different Cause
* Pinochet, less shit than modern progressives - Timmy
* The importance of science communication - ATTP
* Gorbachev failed. That's why he was showered with honors
* Simple models predict behavior at least as well as behavioral scientists
* Tribalism and Electoral Politics - "Clinton put many potential voters, the Trump supporters, in the “them” category. Trump put foreigners who don’t vote, in the “them” category"
* Inflation: Why Didn’t We Think of That Before? by Pierre Lemieux
* The Caplan-Singer Debate: My Opening Statement on “Do the Rich Pay Their Fair Share?”
13 comments:
Well, the best two things I read this holiday weekend were the articles by Smil and Pielke fils. So thanks for pointing them out.
After getting slammed by both extremes for more than a decade, I can testify to the accuracy of some of the things that I read this morning. As someone who spend five years trying to chart a sane direction for energy policy, I can likewise testify that Smil wrote many important things in the article.
So you may simply assume that I was pleased to read things that agreed with my point of view. Or not...
Climate change has always been a threat too slow for human attention spans. Clear back in the 1970's if not earlier. Doesn't make it less important. Not no threat at all, as the Right would have it. Not an crisis needed action right now, as the Left would have it. Both are wrong.
Trump and the MAGA wing of the Republican party are a threat to Constitutional government.
Don't believe Biden? Then listen to Chaney. And watch videos:
https://youtu.be/mWzYB2RmfPU?t=289
Mike Pence is a Republican. Vice President Mike Pence had no authority to order the National Guard, but he ending the coup attempt by ordering the National Guard to support the police and clear the Capital.
History of the USA has similar movements. For example:
https://history.denverlibrary.org/news/when-kkk-ruled-colorado-not-so-long-ago
In the 1920's, the KKK exploded in size, controlled the national Democratic party, then imploded due to incompetent and corrupt leadership.
I'd guess you didn't grow up within easy walk of a place where KKK cross burnings were often held in the 1920's.
Oh, and the Native American Party aka the "Know Nothings" (1844 to 1860) starting as an anti-Catholic political party, complete with riots to prevent Catholics from voting. Turned into the anti-slavery Republican party (along with the Whigs). Lots of twists on that story. Go figure.
Oh, and what do you think of Truss?
> Trump and the MAGA wing of the Republican party are a threat to...
You have misunderstood: I agree with that. But Biden's partisan ramblings are no way to address the problem.
> Truss?
It is too early to tell. She has said a lot of stupid things in order to get elected; I have no great hopes; but we might get lucky.
WMC/Tom - is the NYT interview the one from April? I don't want to miss out if there's a newer one..
I didn't read Smil: I was only quoting from RP's review.
I thought RP's review was rather good.
Yes (to answer my own question) - Smil's interview was from April. If you have an unfilled five minutes, you can read it here -
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/04/25/magazine/vaclav-smil-interview.html
I can think of a corollary to your "If it isn't catastrophic, we've got nothing to worry about, have we?" Which is "If it's true we're changing the climate, then it must be an emergency"
You could make a case that both are straw-mannish, but I think you'll also find that ATTP for instance has signed on for the latter version.
> But Biden's partisan ramblings are no way to address the problem
Frankly I do not see a way to address the problem other than partisan politics.
Assassination seems rather pointless, as there are plenty of trump-like clones, most of them smarter and harder working than trump.
Civil war seems wasteful at minimum.
Perhaps you have a better suggestion?
If you've dismissed - correctly - assassination and civil war, and your only remaining thought is partisan politics, then you haven't thought enough.
"my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together. Uniting our people. And uniting our nation. I ask every American to join me in this cause" was better.
Inspiring.
OK, so then the MAGA crowd didn't join in.
Now what?
You're curiously uninspired; unenterprising; impatient. Have you considered becoming a pol?
"behind our efforts let there be found our efforts"
Or, more constructively, this kind of thing at Volokh seems much more helpful.
Pol? Wrong personality type.
Volokh seems to be badly out of touch with reality. But hey, that's not all that uncommon.
> Runaway administrative agencies usurping legislative power?
A scale problem. Town meeting is the best form of government. Direct democracy. The problem is that direct domocracy doesn't scale much larger than to perhaps tens of thousands of voters. Probably better to limit to thousands of voters. Too many details to cover, too much cost in everyone's time to debate the too many details.
That's why we use representative governments. Works at larger scale. However, there are limits to how much detail can be handled by a single representative body, for much the same reasons. Too many details.
Above a certain scale, the representative body must delegate details to hired professionals aka administrative agencies, give general guidance, and oversee the results, and correct as needed.
For example, Congress could (as it once did) set the terms and conditions of every bond issue. But for more than a century, Congress has told the Treasury department to do this. The professionals know what the market conditions are, they can deal with all the details.
My goal would be to make democratic government work well. If your goal is to make democratic governments weak enough for Fascism to win, then by all means try to overload elected representative government with details.
A government weak enough to drown in your bathtub has no chance resisting Hitler. Or Putin.
> I agree too that there's a decent case for making it at least a bit easier to amend the U.S. Constitution.
There is a decent case for belling the cat. Exactly how could that be done?
More on the right wing crazyness in the USA.
https://wapo.st/3x9V2qN
And Biden is too "partisan"?
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