tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post11975897038818163..comments2024-03-27T23:59:49.801+00:00Comments on Stoat: Brexit schmexitWilliam M. Connolleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-46318839279101502822019-03-29T20:59:02.758+00:002019-03-29T20:59:02.758+00:00Breaking news. Theresa May has come up with a radi...Breaking news. Theresa May has come up with a radically new solution: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/29/mps-reject-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-third-time" rel="nofollow">having a fourth vote on her deal</a>. Only this time the threat is: vote for my deal or I'll call another general election.<br />Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-16154617152183633372019-03-29T18:34:59.956+00:002019-03-29T18:34:59.956+00:00Its a bit like watching Brownian motion: any predi...Its a bit like watching Brownian motion: any prediction of the direction travelled is impossible. I note with some amusement the Guardian downplays Boris's chances of become PM because <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/29/through-brexit-looking-glass-now-know-less-did" rel="nofollow">Boris was hopelessly exposed as a man without honour or judgment.</a> I thought those were the necessary qualifications to be a Brexit PM.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-10638879170841697862019-03-29T17:47:54.386+00:002019-03-29T17:47:54.386+00:00I have no faith in my ability to predict what this...I have no faith in my ability to predict what this bunch of clowns will do.<br /><br />I am genuinely fearful that they will accidentally pass the wrong bill through error, tiredness, boredom, carelessness or confusion.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-62410435780441205562019-03-29T17:10:37.496+00:002019-03-29T17:10:37.496+00:00If going to predict, why not make it worthwhile. I...If going to predict, why not make it worthwhile. I have been laying at digital odds as low as 8.2 today she won't be replaced in March 2019 as conservative leader. Takes a while for 1922 committee to meet and set a timetable and allow a week for tory MPs' to announce they will run.... Stepping down with immediate effect does not seem likely to me. Lay odds now up to 30.<br />crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-48395290782212765652019-03-29T15:23:44.941+00:002019-03-29T15:23:44.941+00:00May has put one half of her deal - that has alread...May has put one half of her deal - that has already been defeated twice by historic proportions - to the vote again. It lost by 344 to 286.<br /><br />She says the implications of a third Commons defeat for her agreement with the EU are ‘grave’. I'd say having a dimwit as PM who continued to try and plug the same deal over and over after it lost the first vote by the largest margin in UK Parliamentary history is the grave bit.<br />Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-85170853358070443802019-03-29T15:23:36.182+00:002019-03-29T15:23:36.182+00:00Half deal lost by 58 so back to hoping EU only off...Half deal lost by 58 so back to hoping EU only offer a long one.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-86301841125362952312019-03-28T17:59:04.351+00:002019-03-28T17:59:04.351+00:00> As long as May is PM the Brexit process will ...> As long as May is PM the Brexit process will be<br /><br />I think that's not technically true; Parliament can pass laws against her will if it wants to.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-40139039832768983182019-03-28T17:54:12.131+00:002019-03-28T17:54:12.131+00:00It sounds bizarre to me because Bercow is just the...It sounds bizarre to me because Bercow is just the speaker of the house: the EU will not be negotiating with him. As long as May is PM the Brexit process will be determined by her, so the ERG need not worry about sanity getting a look in, unless the govt. falls.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-84676763926800588612019-03-28T13:13:00.560+00:002019-03-28T13:13:00.560+00:00SI passed last night.
Betfair judged extension cl...SI passed last night.<br /><br />Betfair judged extension claim this morning though according to their logic neither condition for an extension has happened. So was it SI passing that caused judgement or have they decided it is pretty much impossible to revoke A50 by tomorrow?<br /><br />Andy, that sounds more sensible rather than more bizarre to me. Maybe not happening though and certainly some ERG members seem to be holding firm in opposition to May's deal which could still result in long delay and possibly no brexit as more likely outcomes than a no deal exit. Seems weird but anything that makes no brexit more likely is something I'll happily accept.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-56758384502243254812019-03-27T07:00:01.004+00:002019-03-27T07:00:01.004+00:00Oh, its getting more bizarre now. It seems the ER...Oh, its getting more bizarre now. It seems the ERG is changing course and will back the PM's deal. Their perception is that May has lost control: Bercow is now running the Brexit process and that may allow MPs to block any form of hard Brexit. So they will now back May.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-79230016501784553152019-03-27T00:19:34.005+00:002019-03-27T00:19:34.005+00:00There is supposed to be a statutory instrument(SI)...There is supposed to be a statutory instrument(SI). If the SI isn't passed then there seem to be differing opinions some saying EU law takes precedence, other say 1972 ACT is repealed and UK law takes precedence and I have also seen someone say that a process that ministers need to start hasn't yet been started yet so the 1972 Act is not repealed and therefore EU law takes precedence.<br /><br />.<br /><br />Betfair claim "UK - Brexit - Will Article 50 be extended?" is still open. Rules say <br />"Will the deadline of 29-03-2019 23:59:59 CET under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be extended?<br /><br />Yes will be settled as a winner if the European Council unanimously agree to extend Article 50."<br />There is press release saying the political agreement is formally adopted.<br /><br />Betfair is claiming there are two conditional extensions and neither has taken place nor will take place until either May's deal ratified or 11pm on 29th March.<br /><br />So presumably if the statutory instrument is not put in place, then the deadline is extended by EU but UK just chose not to use extension. However if we revoke before 11pm on 29/3 perhaps the whole process including the deadline evaporates and the deadline isn't extended despite there being a unanimous EU council decision to extend the deadline.<br /><br />Seems a bit weird and asking for trouble to me.<br /><br />To my mind there is conditional extension to 22 May. The other extension to 12 April effectively takes place in all other circumstances. It is worded as two conditional extensions but there is really only one condition that is either satisfied or not. So is it really two conditional extensions or one conditional extension and an unconditional extension?<br /><br />Anyway, for clarity I am hoping SI is passed and we revoke on 30th March or later.<br /><br />crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-28841066975483132502019-03-26T21:57:24.943+00:002019-03-26T21:57:24.943+00:00The govt. is using the following logic: we are le...The govt. is using the following logic: we are leaving, if we can get the support of the ERG and the DUP then we will leave with May's deal. But we are definitely leaving, so if we don't get support from the ERG then we leave without a deal.<br /><br />But as the ERG want to leave without a deal I don't see their motivation for supporting May's deal.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-82872950079033559072019-03-26T21:11:18.703+00:002019-03-26T21:11:18.703+00:00The govt. has posted a statement on the petition w...The govt. has posted a statement on the petition website. It reads:<br /><br />"This Government will not revoke Article 50. We will honour the result of the 2016 referendum and work with Parliament to deliver a deal that ensures we leave the European Union."<br /><br />To put it another way: the current government has zero interest in what the "will of the people" now is. To me it looks like "no deal" is almost a certainty.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-5247469797273662512019-03-26T17:29:56.619+00:002019-03-26T17:29:56.619+00:00I think the EU have given us a short extension to ...I think the EU have given us a short extension to the 12th, but I suppose that if we don't knuckle down and actually change the law, we'll leave on the 29th anyway.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-77299081635288885762019-03-26T15:55:50.868+00:002019-03-26T15:55:50.868+00:00might forget to change law saying we leave on 29th...<i>might forget to change law saying we leave on 29th March :P</i><br /><br />If we legally leave on the 29th and no-one realises, have we still left?PaulSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-17783548137203894812019-03-24T19:21:43.041+00:002019-03-24T19:21:43.041+00:00> But does and should it make any difference?
...> But does and should it make any difference?<br /><br />Some difference, yes, Unless it gets to 17M, which is rather unlikely, then it won't be definitive. It's a bit like having a big march. It might embolden some of the MPs who are scared of their vocal leavers.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-7572788712279462122019-03-24T12:27:59.150+00:002019-03-24T12:27:59.150+00:00Deadline for 511k no deal petition is 17 April 201...Deadline for 511k no deal petition is 17 April 2019 so over 5 months into its 6 month period. i.e. nearly run its course.<br /><br />5M revoke petition deadline is 20 Aug 2019. So still early in its 6 month period and nearing ten times as many votes.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-85989930938250010302019-03-24T12:15:29.646+00:002019-03-24T12:15:29.646+00:00I signed before 800k, nearing 5M now.
But does an...I signed before 800k, nearing 5M now.<br /><br />But does and should it make any difference? Long way to go from 5M to 17.4M. OTOH largest petition and one of largest marches surely should have some effect?<br /><br />Could almost imagine they are so split on what to do re May and Brexit, and relieved that EU extension gives a little more time that they might forget to change law saying we leave on 29th March :Pcrandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-63236162568257933862019-03-24T12:05:42.539+00:002019-03-24T12:05:42.539+00:00I just heard on the radio that there are two petit...I just heard on the radio that there are two petitions.<br /><br />The remain petition is now at nearly 5 million.<br />The leave without a deal petition is at 510k votes.<br />Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-10286479963473585442019-03-23T21:44:22.797+00:002019-03-23T21:44:22.797+00:00I signed when it was about 400k I think; now above...I signed when it was about 400k I think; now above 4M.<br /><br />I see I was wrong about extensions, at least initially. Only that things will be stupid is predictable, not the details.<br /><br />As for the Tory leadership... I predict (ha!) that if she doesn't go soon the Tories will indeed do something desperate like change the rules. Except they still face the problem that they have no-one to replace her with.<br /><br />FWIW, as I was in the capitalist paradise of Waitrose this morning doing my shopping it came to me who we needed to step forward: Tony Blair. Alas he is shop-soiled, but still, if only we could forget the war he would be just what we need at this point. He could even join the Tory party if that would make them happy.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-69991876872508371742019-03-23T21:36:13.480+00:002019-03-23T21:36:13.480+00:00New black comedy. The Brexiter Tory MPs want a se...New black comedy. The Brexiter Tory MPs want a second referendum. Eh what? No, not for us, we don't get one. But the Brexiters want a second vote on Theresa May's leadership of the Tory Party.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/23/tory-remainers-brexiters-say-theresa-may-in-end-days" rel="nofollow">Some Tory MPs are so exasperated with May’s leadership that they want to change party rules, enabling another vote to have her removed.</a>Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-87622084017559061442019-03-22T15:35:31.299+00:002019-03-22T15:35:31.299+00:00https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isgt0VBxJaA&fe...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isgt0VBxJaA&feature=youtu.bePhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-34912419965390624202019-03-22T06:51:47.749+00:002019-03-22T06:51:47.749+00:00I signed it. It was at 1.3 million when I signed,...I signed it. It was at 1.3 million when I signed, at this moment it's at 2.2 million. But it's only to underline the point that Brexit has not been about the "will of the people" ever since the people changed their minds in sufficient numbers to make the referendum result obsolete. I'm afraid the 70 votes of the ERG count for more.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-16939489929560534722019-03-22T02:11:50.733+00:002019-03-22T02:11:50.733+00:00Signed the petition yet?
https://petition.parliam...Signed the petition yet?<br /><br />https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584<br /><br /><br />17.4m should be about enough.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-15676989716025924912019-03-21T18:02:40.845+00:002019-03-21T18:02:40.845+00:00Macron of France now says that the UK is heading f...Macron of France now says that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/no-deal-brexit-emmanuel-macron-theresa-may-mps" rel="nofollow">the UK is heading for a no deal Brexit if MPs do not accept the deal Theresa May has negotiated</a>. It is interesting that it is Macron who is saying this: a UK brought to its knees by a no deal Brexit would provide a powerful object lesson as to how a country can be wrecked by right-wing demagogues. That would provide a considerable election boost to EU politicians who are under pressure from similar right-wing demagogues. Chief among those is Macron, for whom Marin Le Pen poses a considerable threat.Andy Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14975141756383175819noreply@blogger.com