tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post3111568830557243687..comments2024-03-27T23:59:49.801+00:00Comments on Stoat: Me on USAnian politicsWilliam M. Connolleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-19582816344803880132020-11-17T22:14:14.755+00:002020-11-17T22:14:14.755+00:00"Structural trends undermining social resilie..."<i>Structural trends undermining social resilience in the United States have been building up for decades. It became clear to me 10 years ago (see my 2010 forecast) and has become obvious to most everybody in the last few years. These structural forces are: increasing popular immiseration (declining incomes, falling life expectancies, growing social pessimism and despair), elite overproduction and intra-elite conflict, and failing state (growing state debt and collapsing trust in state institutions). The Covid-19 pandemic put even more pressure on the system, especially exacerbating immiseration."</i>"<br /><br />Thank you, Phil, for again reminding us of the consequences of the rise of cant in the service of intersectional critical theory.<br /><br />I for one do not welcome our new structuralist masters.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-18900311489227322692020-11-17T17:02:56.994+00:002020-11-17T17:02:56.994+00:00Oh, and if you want to avoid Democratic, view from...Oh, and if you want to avoid Democratic, view from Alpha Centauri<br /><br />http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/america-in-november-2020-a-structural-demographic-view-from-alpha-centauri/<br /><br />"Structural trends undermining social resilience in the United States have been building up for decades. It became clear to me 10 years ago (see my 2010 forecast) and has become obvious to most everybody in the last few years. These structural forces are: increasing popular immiseration (declining incomes, falling life expectancies, growing social pessimism and despair), elite overproduction and intra-elite conflict, and failing state (growing state debt and collapsing trust in state institutions). The Covid-19 pandemic put even more pressure on the system, especially exacerbating immiseration."<br /><br />Resilience and efficiency are both important. Optimizing for _only_ efficiency (aka "Free Market" for everything) breaks resilience.<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-55469432139646143762020-11-17T15:59:16.379+00:002020-11-17T15:59:16.379+00:00D-rhetoric?
Denial? Democratic?
The USA has gone...D-rhetoric?<br /><br />Denial? Democratic?<br /><br />The USA has gone in my lifetime from one of the most egalitarian countries in the world to one of the least. Why would anyone expect that this would have not political impacts?<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-40446656937963668792020-11-17T15:09:36.605+00:002020-11-17T15:09:36.605+00:00I doubt this is going anywhere; especially if you ...I doubt this is going anywhere; especially if you won't drop the D-rhetoric.<br /><br />I don't believe your assertions re income. For example, https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/ doesn't show a decline; it shows "now" aka end-of-graph as the highest ever. I don't believe your overall thesis either; but you'll find that kind of discussion all over and I have nothing special to add.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-73196296222337638612020-11-17T14:52:12.496+00:002020-11-17T14:52:12.496+00:00Your retort shows you are in denial about how the ...Your retort shows you are in denial about how the world is working. Sure, a single bar isn't a good model for the economy. <br /><br />The rich people are getting richer, big gains in both wealth and income. The median person is working for similar income and has less wealth.<br /><br />"Yer Waitrose" has customers with far more to spend. Expand the stores, offer new products, life is good. Life is very good.<br /><br />The middle market has fewer customers and both the customers and the stores are getting squeezed. Stores going out of business.. Sears is more complex than this, but they focused the middle of the market. That was twice the size of the high end market in 1970. It's now smaller than the high end market.<br /><br />https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/screen-shot-2020-01-08-at-5-06-47-pm/<br /><br />Where did the middle go? Down market, of course. So "yer Lidl" has more customers trying to spend less per person. I'm sure that they are all very very happy... Very much so. The happiest. A good thing you never go there.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-12557493626212165312020-11-17T09:43:36.693+00:002020-11-17T09:43:36.693+00:00Your fable makes no sense, in that the world doesn...Your fable makes no sense, in that the world doesn't work that way. The way the world works is that people make profits by catering to people's needs. If some rich people move into an area, then some businesses will change to cater to them, and some will spring up new. But that doesn't remove the needs of the existing folk; and some will continue to cater to them, making profits even though their clients are poor relative to BG. And indeed we see this in real life: there are a range of supermarkets in the UK, from yer Waitrose to yer Lidl (is Lidl the bottom? I don't know. I never go there, of course).William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-59205064600303772752020-11-17T04:21:06.777+00:002020-11-17T04:21:06.777+00:00Bill Gates probably has more spendable cash than t...Bill Gates probably has more spendable cash than the rest of the customers. If BG just walks in once, you are correct, however, as wouldn't provide a regular income. If he is a regular customer, the bartender maximizes profit by catering to him, not to the poor riffraff with less total spendable cash.<br /><br />Your source says median wealth in 2001 was $144,600 and in 2016 was $115,000, looks like a decline to me.<br /><br />"Upper-income families were the only income tier able to build on their wealth from 2001 to 2016, adding 33% at the median. On the other hand, middle-income families saw their median net worth shrink by 20% and lower-income families experienced a loss of 45%."<br /><br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-56567771518961120282020-11-16T22:34:46.649+00:002020-11-16T22:34:46.649+00:00Your fable doesn't work (was that the point? I...Your fable doesn't work (was that the point? I struggle to see the point). If BG walks in, the bartender does nothing other than serve him a drink, since the bartender knows full well that his other customers are no richer. And if he is foolish enough to think otherwise, he will soon discover his error.<br /><br />> Median wealth has been falling since about 2007.<br /><br />That is not true: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-29589618940665342492020-11-13T15:06:27.050+00:002020-11-13T15:06:27.050+00:00Bill Gates walks into a bar. The average wealth ex...Bill Gates walks into a bar. The average wealth explodes, so the bartender raises prices and adds fancy dishes and drinks to the menu. How exactly does this help Fred and Jane in the corner table?<br /><br />Life expectancy in the USA has been falling since about 2014.<br /><br />Average wealth has been increasing. Median wealth has been falling since about 2007.<br /><br />Don't get me started on the American Health Care "System". A CF, at best.<br /><br />Somewhere to go:<br />"In these articles I argue that general well-being (and high levels of social cooperation) tends to move in the opposite direction from inequality. During the ‘disintegrative phases’ inequality is high while well-being and cooperation are low. During the ‘integrative phases’ inequality is low, while well-being and cooperation are high."<br /><br /><br />Do you think Fred and Jane voted for Trump?<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-85245399190170059472020-11-13T11:31:43.869+00:002020-11-13T11:31:43.869+00:00That's an odd post. It makes the assertion tha...That's an odd post. It makes the assertion that general well being has changed, but overall has no trend, since 1800. This is clearly wrong by any measures such as wealth (i.e. ability to do things), health, life expectancy and so on. Similarly, presenting P+S as though it was undisputed fact doesn't incline me to trust it. But leaving all that aside, the post still doesn't really go anywhere.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-53361966100848741332020-11-13T03:54:01.076+00:002020-11-13T03:54:01.076+00:00And now for something completely different.
Why h...And now for something completely different.<br /><br />Why has trust and cooperation been declining in the USA?<br /><br />http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/strange-disappearance/<br /><br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-77086188290955925662020-11-11T14:27:47.043+00:002020-11-11T14:27:47.043+00:00The Republicans have already long ago folded. Ex P...The Republicans have already long ago folded. Ex President Bush, Senator Mitt Romney, and others.<br /><br />Notice that the media "declaring" a State for one candidate or another has no legal meaning. Popular votes only have meaning under current State laws. The official vote is Monday December 14, 2020, and Wednesday January 6, 2021 is when Congress counts and certifies the electoral votes. Anything before that is mostly noise. While the popular vote in a State normally selects the Electors, the State Legislatures could change the laws and pick Electors by other means as the Constitution allows.<br /><br />As could the military by pointing guns at people.<br /><br />BTW: I really really hope you are correct. But frankly you don't have a clue.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-76182693517326937342020-11-11T09:20:10.964+00:002020-11-11T09:20:10.964+00:00This is a good place to write down my brilliant pr...This is a good place to write down my brilliant prediction: that Trump and the Repubs will fold. They almost have, already: while they are nominally complaining of fraud, they aren't doing so nearly as loudly or enthusiastically as they need to; they are just dumbly refusing to cooperate. I expect that when the various undeclared states do actually declare, that will shift the bulk of the party.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-77382849248237960102020-11-11T00:16:36.593+00:002020-11-11T00:16:36.593+00:00>> Today's Republican party is rotten to...>> Today's Republican party is rotten to the core<br /><br />> I find myself doubtful of this; even if it may appear so, locally. And I doubt it applies to R voters in general. But, hopefully we'll get the chance to find out.<br /><br />A week ago I would have conceded that this one sentence in my comment may have verged on hyperbole, but as of November 10 it seems accurate, as the party - despite the absence of credible evidence - gradually congeals behind the idea of election fraud. I never claimed that my statement applied to the typical R voter. But the party's actions are reprehensible and unprecedented, and a significant percentage of R voters are going to go along with it.Mark Arnesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00405144110125493735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-80527317629279733832020-11-08T02:25:55.228+00:002020-11-08T02:25:55.228+00:00NeoIke would be warmly welcomed into the Big Tent ...NeoIke would be warmly welcomed into the Big Tent of the Boiling Frog Party<br /><br /><br />https://www.benningtonbanner.com/opinion/columnists/gary-swing-boiling-frog-party-hops-into-vermont-politics/article_f57c971d-4dba-50dc-aade-26fda6a747c5.htmlTHE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-24069084768550746512020-11-05T03:45:14.076+00:002020-11-05T03:45:14.076+00:00I like Ike, but Ike wouldn't fit into today...I like Ike, but Ike wouldn't fit into today's Republican Party. Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-8553665080859242742020-11-04T17:39:10.171+00:002020-11-04T17:39:10.171+00:00I wish George Church would leave off wolly mammot...I wish George Church would leave off wolly mammoth rewilding for a moment and turn his hand to cloning President Eisenhower.THE CLIMATE WARShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02578106673226403151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-63817103083701752112020-11-04T07:54:06.963+00:002020-11-04T07:54:06.963+00:00What a great election...
What a great election... <br />Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12139055978545659341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-73287773884966787612020-11-03T18:29:31.841+00:002020-11-03T18:29:31.841+00:00I don't know either but I have read Doctor De ...I don't know either but I have read <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctor_De_Soto" rel="nofollow">Doctor De Soto</a>. I wonder if there is any connection?William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-19140633155672334212020-11-03T18:16:40.599+00:002020-11-03T18:16:40.599+00:00I think it's the Peruvian economist Hernando D...I think it's the Peruvian economist Hernando DeSoto (confusingly, there are two Hispanic economists named DeSoto that cover the same territory) that made the case much more clearly than I ever could.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-36381311879290633702020-11-03T18:07:23.977+00:002020-11-03T18:07:23.977+00:00Re immigrants, I largely agree, with possible quib...Re immigrants, I largely agree, with possible quibbles (see also <a href="https://openborders.info/" rel="nofollow">Open Borders: The Case</a>). In particular, our ridiculous habit of prohibiting them from working is absurd. But this is much like protectionism, which all economists think stupid but the general public tends to support, and pols to near universally support.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-84894132381870981702020-11-03T15:30:56.902+00:002020-11-03T15:30:56.902+00:00Speaking just briefly about immigration to the U.S...Speaking just briefly about immigration to the U.S., I get the impression some people think that immigrants come here all starry eyed and full of hope for their future. That's not really the case for most...<br />The U.S.is a place where you can earn enough money to survive and if you do it for 25 years you can send your kids to college. That's what most immigrants realize.<br /><br />My question for other countries is why can't they clear such a low bar? Immigrants are such a clear public good that all countries should be bidding for them.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12747117922597525042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-87603499105697229282020-11-03T12:22:17.627+00:002020-11-03T12:22:17.627+00:00
This is not how you run a successful election:
ht...<br />This is not how you run a successful election:<br />https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-03/300-lawsuits-already-have-been-filed-over-the-us-election/12842852<br /><br />If thousands of votes were not accepted in Australia we would run the election againNathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12139055978545659341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-61202296459338817642020-11-03T12:09:51.770+00:002020-11-03T12:09:51.770+00:00Other poor aspects include that votes have very lo...Other poor aspects include that votes have very low value.<br />They lose value immediately in most areas; no value fro Republicans in California, no value for Democrats in the Dakotas...<br />Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12139055978545659341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-11967876282491023582020-11-03T12:07:35.994+00:002020-11-03T12:07:35.994+00:00If they have to constantly refer to the courts, th...If they have to constantly refer to the courts, then it's a poor system.<br /><br /><br /><br />"For example, counting votes received after election day." - This happens in Australia and it's done by volunteers<br /><br />"you can damn well get your vote in by the day or lose it." - well this is also poor.Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12139055978545659341noreply@blogger.com