tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post5724255078632488495..comments2024-03-18T18:14:34.278+00:00Comments on Stoat: Sensitive but wrongWilliam M. Connolleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-23215767513705143462019-11-07T16:05:19.398+00:002019-11-07T16:05:19.398+00:00Look at the past to see the future.
https://www.n...Look at the past to see the future.<br /><br />https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12874-3<br /><br />About 3 meters per century of sea level rise.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-24885849996441847452019-11-07T00:10:24.461+00:002019-11-07T00:10:24.461+00:00climate models are garbage bc they're tuned to...<i>climate models are garbage bc they're tuned to match observations.</i><br /><br />Presumably that's specifically referring to tuning to match the instrumental surface temperature time series, because all climate models are tuned to match observations of some sort.<br /><br />But technically UKESM1 has been tuned to the instrumental time series as documented in Sections 2 and 3 of <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018MS001464" rel="nofollow">Mulcahy et al. 2018</a>. The original model configuration with best practice tuning fits to independent literature and directly relevant observations returned a net anthro aerosol forcing of -2.75W/m2 at year 2000, which suggested a total anthro forcing (with GHGs) of -0.6W/m2 at year 2000. They judged this to be incompatible with observed warming, so set out to find additional processes and modifications which would dampen the aerosol forcing, down to -1.45W/m2 in the final config.<br /><br />That was all done with short time slice simulations though, just for 1850 and 2000. They didn't have visibility of how the model would simulate transiently.PaulSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-54079621884995051302019-11-06T22:13:57.998+00:002019-11-06T22:13:57.998+00:00Fight!
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=Hola_15729...Fight!<br /><br />https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=Hola_1572931538Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com