tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post774094549375143210..comments2024-03-27T23:59:49.801+00:00Comments on Stoat: Climatic Impacts of Wind PowerWilliam M. Connolleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-27932805645332589822019-12-25T02:39:21.529+00:002019-12-25T02:39:21.529+00:00Not considering the "long-term side" is ...<br />Not considering the "long-term side" is likely a failure, at least long term.<br /><br />Yet one can fail in the short term as well.<br /><br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-540233672249224472019-12-24T09:26:22.356+00:002019-12-24T09:26:22.356+00:00> Any arbitrary cutoff date
Why are you obsess...> Any arbitrary cutoff date<br /><br />Why are you obsessing over a "cutoff"? There isn't one. If you do it by discounting, there's just a tail. All I'm saying is that the tail is about 100 years long.<br /><br />> Make the wrong decision for the long term by only considering the short term.<br /><br />I think that's kinda faux-wisdom. It isn't true that erring on the long-term side is reliably "correct" or "better". People do have a tendency to short-termism, but that's different.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-33340409562810730392019-12-24T05:28:10.529+00:002019-12-24T05:28:10.529+00:00Any arbitrary cutoff date creates bad decisions.
...Any arbitrary cutoff date creates bad decisions.<br /><br />Make the wrong decision for the long term by only considering the short term.<br /><br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-91400901576009655252019-12-22T21:00:36.141+00:002019-12-22T21:00:36.141+00:00100 years is arbitrary of course but (in the linke...100 years is arbitrary of course but (in the linked post) I did address this obvious point: "not care about post-2100 (or post-2117; or some other arbitrary but distant time. But not a time as close as 2050)".William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-20333959962190295462019-12-22T18:17:23.177+00:002019-12-22T18:17:23.177+00:00You can't justify the 100 year magic number. I...You can't justify the 100 year magic number. It is just magic that 99 years matters, and 101 years doesn't matter.<br />Not even a high discount rate will justify such a position.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-70779355350172871302019-12-22T17:21:57.127+00:002019-12-22T17:21:57.127+00:00If, hypothetically, wind and FF had the same impac...If, hypothetically, wind and FF had the same impacts over 100 years then I think there would be no point preferring wind - unless other factors, like it costing less, came into play. Overall that's not a huge problem even if true, because solar.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7612793.post-10548488311989561012019-12-22T14:54:12.157+00:002019-12-22T14:54:12.157+00:00Consider that the direct costs of wind might be th...Consider that the direct costs of wind might be the same as fossil fuels. Ignore the indirect costs of the chemical effects of CO2 on the oceans. Consider that if the climate impact of wind will always be larger than from burning fossil fuels over the next 100 years, then we would never stop burning fossil fuels until they run out if we follow your std rule of not looking past 100 years. Even after melting all the ice sheets, making most of the oceans lifeless and the tropics deadly hot.<br />Ok, ignoring that solar power's climate impact is an order of magnitude smaller. And the nuclear option.<br />Short termitis is a disease.. You make the wrong decision for the long term by only considering the short term.<br /><br />I hope you get better.<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.com