Reflections on recent events in the Middle East

My last post started off as this post, so to speak, but mutated. Happily, the situation hasn't changed much in the last few days. Before we proceed to any substance, pause to admire the graphic, which admirably demonstrates how useless CND, and by extension the "progressive" left, is¹.

Anyway, to set the scene: for years, the Mad Mullahs have been enriching uranium and pissing about on the margin of have-we-enriched-it-enough-to-make-a-bomb-soon. Various meeja have produced article along the lines of "were they actually about to do it now" and all of that is wank; it would be impossible to know; it would be reasonable to not be prepared to leave it as a risk.

So, having conveniently smoothed their local environment, the Front Wheels decided to twat the MMs; naturally, the MMs fired back. As far as I can see, the FWs are using precise targetting, the MMs are using scattershot volleys of imprecise missiles most of which get shot down or tracked into the wilderness. The MMs haven't hit anything significant; the FWs by contrast have taken out a lot of the MMs military infrastructure³, and if nothing unexpected intervenes, will go on to win. Quite what "winning" will look like is unclear. Ideally, a revolution. Failing that, just destruction of all their significant military and nuclear stuff.

Should the USAnians join the fun? They are moving piles of air tankers regionwards which would be expensive if it was but a whim; I wouldn't be astonished if the Mango Mussolini decides that the Kikes are winning, so he should join in late² and claim all the credit. And I bet the US military would love to know whether their bigger bunker-busters actually work for real. Notice how helpful it is that Russia has exhausted itself in Ukraine and has no strength left to meddle elsewhere; relatedly, Syria is being sensible.

A brief note on negotiations: the MMs were never serious about this, presumably because they would have lost face. Even now they are pissing around insisting on a ceasefire-before-talks, which is stupid. I'm not even sure why they are bothering; the Ks are ignoring them, obvs; the EU are paying attention because they love talking, but the Ks are ignoring the EU too, obvs⁴.

This post notes that Israel is winning with fighters against a country noted for its drones; whereas the twitterati consensus was that fighters are obsolete in an era of drone warfare. That's not quite fair, because the MM's drones are slow-moving bombs; but it does illustrate the point that drones aren't any use against invisible fighters at altitude and speed and range.

What could go wrong? The MMs could actually scrape enough Pu together to make a bomb; but then they'd have to deliver it, which would be tricky given the ~5% suvival rate of their missiles so that seems quite unlikely. They could amuse themselves targetting ships in the gulf, but that's a quick way to bring the USAnians down on their heads, so probably not a good idea; and anyway in a couple of days they won't even be able to do that.

Competition's eatin' the mice

2025/06/22: As the seminal LL Cool J put it in the eerily prescient Mama said knock you out:

Explosions, overpowerin'

Over the competition, I'm towerin'

Wrecking shop, when I drop

These lyrics that'll make you call the cops

Don't you dare stare

You better move, don't ever compare

Me to the rest that'll all get sliced and diced

Competition's payin' the price

Or to put it another way, the USAnians have indeed dropped the bomb. Not The Big One, just a few big ones. Death Star memes are available. I'm charmed by the way the MM ends his twit "Thank you for your attention to this matter"; it is as though he is still remembering his complimentary close from business school. The results of the twatting aren't obviously impressive; doubtless you've seen people trying to interpret the images (or here). The usual useless talking heads have volumes on what-might-Iran-do-now; for example Aunty; all of it worth every penny you paid for it. The Dems are predictably useless. Reportedly, The Iranian Parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, and doubtless the popcorn vendors are desperately hoping the MMs do try to do this. 2025/06/23: "sadly" it looks like they've wimped out.

Notes

1. I was going to belabour exactly why, but realised it woud be pointless.

2. Like wot they always do.

3. This will become fairly obvious as the MMs run out of missiles and launchers over the next few days.

4. 2025/06/21: for sheer po-faced taking ourselves too seriously, you can't beat Aunty's Huge dilemmas lie ahead for UK over Iran. No-one gives a toss but the political class can wank themselves blind over it. But even there they can't help getting it hopelessly wrong: Other sources describe diplomacy as a "sticking plaster", questioning how effective it can be when Israel...; no, you clowns, the problem is that the MMs, who are losing, refuse to talk about the one important thing, their bomb plans.

Refs

* A "Sympathetic Critique" of Law-Skepticism on the New Right.

* "The Nationalist Threat to Liberty" - My Final Contribution to the Liberty Fund Symposium on "The Legacy of David Boaz".

* Basic Economics Is Intuitive.

* Why Piketty's Full Of It.

* Adam Smith, George Orwell, and Rules for Writing.

* The Resilient American Dream.

* Political Violence Surges Because Politics Matter Too Much.

* Prof. Jack Goldsmith (Harvard) on "Was the Iran Strike Constitutional?".

* What Britain looks like after Brexit.

* Law and Policy.

Might is Right

You'll likely be pleased to know that I'm not going to defend my headline too hard. But let's see how far I can get.

Attempts to understand "right" or "justice" - see how whiffly I am being about exactly what I'm talking about - go waay back. In The Republic we find that old fascist Plato pretending to search for a theory of Justice; he is of course not searching, he is just presenting a preamble to lead us to his pet theory; to do that he has to eliminate likely contenders¹. He puts the idea that "might is right" into Thrasymachus's mouth; because he has no meaningful arguments aginst the idea, he just makes T an unpleasant angry character and really, that's the level of intellectual argument you'll find there.

As we all know, I dislike rights-based language. In moving from a "state of nature" where you have the right of private justice - i.e., you can hit people if you think they have wronged you - you abandon this right, in exchange for the state promising public justice; you do not really have a "right to life"; instead, the state promises to hit people who try to kill you. Which is to say, the state promises to use the overwhelming - in comparison to any private citizen - might available to it in order to ensure your "rights".

But international relations are not far from the state of nature, perhaps more so now that the USAnians are going a bit mad. So if two countries - for example Iran and Israel - decide to have a fight, the true arbiter is might. Naturally enough useless pols¹, whose only currency is useless words, disagree; we have for example our own Dear Leader saying The reports of these strikes are concerning and we urge all parties to step back and reduce tensions urgently. Escalation serves no one in the region. Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time for restraint. But there's no information content there; this is just what they say, reflexively, unthinkingly, every time. They are word-people; they would like the world to be one that privileges the talents of word-people. That their advice is harmful is of no concern to them.

In the private sphere, we have surrendered our right to private justice to the state and should not use violence. But this should not confuse us into assuming this is true everywhere. And if there is to be war, it is better that it be short.

Notes

1. In fact he doesn't even manage this. As Popper points out, Plato doesn't include "equality before the law", not because he hasn't thought of it, but because he has no good arguments against.

2. Would you like proof that KS is a twat? How about Hydrogen investment means homegrown British energy powering our homes, and thousands of new jobs in Britain's industrial heartlands. We will secure Britain's future as a clean energy superpower?

Refs

* How Trump's Imposition of Massive Tariffs is Repeating the "Ship Money" Abuses of King Charles I.

Bring On The Night

As the Police put it, respectfully touched up:

The afternoon has gently passed me by

Evening spreads itself against the sky

Waiting for tomorrow

Just another day

God bid yesterday goodbye

The future is but a question mark

Hangs above my head there in the dark

Can't see for the brightness

Staring me blind

God bid yesterday goodbye

Bring on the night

I couldn't stand another hour of daylight

Fine White Reggae. And the relevance? You may congratulate me: I am now a retired gentleman of leisure.

Perhaps contrary to the words, I don't expect it to make any great difference to my sporadic blogging.

Refs

* Society Is Fixed, Biology Is Mutable.

* Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time.