2017-10-14

Hello, good evening, and welcome

As foreshadowed, life stirs again in the old place. I start with a poem:

From far, from eve and morning
And yon twelve-winded sky,
The stuff of life to knit me
Blew hither: here am I.

Now---for a breath I tarry
Nor yet disperse apart---
Take my hand quick and tell me,
What have you in your heart.

Speak now, and I will answer;
How shall I help you, say;
Ere to the wind's twelve quarters
I take my endless way.

I offer no interesting insights into the demise of Sb, so don't ask. it is likely to cease existing at the end of the month and I fully expect the site to disappear. I have already engaged the STOAT (or Stoat Terminating Official Archiving Task) which amounts to sending all my old posts off to archive.is. I'm sure there are other ways of doing it, but this I think will do. Constructing an index to them all is tedious; so far I'm partway through 2006. Perhaps doing it by hand isn't the best way; I might try rustling up some scripty thing.

Sb - or at least my part it in - started in February 2006, so Sb lasted more than 10 years. I started there as a scientist; left science for software in late 2007; but it took me a few years to fall out of touch. Lately I feel less and less interested in the direct science of global warming; it all feels like fiddling with details (I say this with no intent to be impolite to those who are interested; there are lots of things I'm not interested in), whereas I become more interested in aspects of politics and economics. As you may perhaps have noticed.

When I can be bothered, I'll tart up the banner and sidebars and so on.

18 comments:

CapitalistImperialistPig said...

Hola!

Phil Hays said...

$10,000,000 Reward

For information leading to the Impeachment and Conviction of

Donald Trump

All the details at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/10/14/have-dirt-that-could-impeach-trump-larry-flynt-will-pay-you-10-million/


Everett F Sargent said...

Hello, am I somewhat welcomed over here?

Phil Hays said...


Oh, and how is May's Brexit working out?

She getting a good deal, making good speeches and so on?

It sounds like the City is moving to Frankfort and Dublin. How is that going to work out?

David B Benson said...

Please do not bother to tart.

William Connolley said...

One of the irritations of blogger I'd forgotten was the inability to edit comments; I can only bin them. Which I'll try to avoid. Anyway, thanks all for showing up and welcome. May looks every day like a worse and worse PM but (qua analyses in all the papers) the Tories are alas to weak to remove her.

crandles said...

Hello, good 11 years later, and welcome back.

Phil Hays said...

"There is not a single credible study which suggests a cliff-edge Brexit would be anything but a total disaster for the UK economy – and an event many times more destructive for us than the EU."

"The reality is that Brexiteers grossly misjudged the post-Brexit balance of negotiating power between the UK and the EU before the vote. And they continue to misread the situation now if they believe waving a no-deal scenario in the face of the EU will prove an effective strategy."

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-negotiations-no-deal-europe-trade-economics-a8001341.html

Assume there is some politician that has both a clear view of the situation and has the political assets to take over. Why would this hypothetical wise person step into the Brexit buzz saw? Better to wait until it is clear to most that Brexit was almost as dumb as electing Donald Trump. From over the Pond, at least, it doesn't look like that moment has come. So it looks like May is "safe", politically. She gets to own the total disaster of Brexit.

William Connolley said...

I don't think the Indy is a credible source for anything other than it's own opinion. A "hard" Brexit could be bad, or could be not. It rather depends on what actually happens. I wouldn't want May in charge when it did; I'd rather have the-equivalent-of-Thatcher, who doesn't seem to exist at the moment. Nor do I have any faith in my fellow voters sanity.

As to why anyone would step forward: because they love their country? For the common good? Strange notions, I know, but without vision the people perish.

crandles said...

>" So it looks like May is "safe", politically. "

18.6% return for T May surviving as PM to the end of year does sound attractive now even if it was over 40% quite recently.

Raymond Arritt said...

You can run, but you can't hide.

Phil Hays said...

A hard Brexit would leave the City without passported access to the EU. Little England and Iceland could compete on equal terms for banking business. Banking without regulation and oversight is a Libertarian ideal, so how did Icesave work out for the British depositors?

Accepting regulation to get access would be seen as a sellout by the Brexiteers. So the City is at least wounded, and perhaps just packs ups and heads to Frankfurt and elsewhere.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-brexit-bankers/

Same for other industries aimed at the demand of the Common Market. No access, why would they stay in England? Sure, local market, but that might be rather smaller after Brexit.

The common good needs someone to step forward, but first this Brexit farce needs to play out. A look into the abyss to settle the mind.

William Connolley said...

Frankfurt is too small: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/06/20/frankfurts-plan-to-steal-londons-business-over-brexit/

Phil Hays said...

Last year, Timmy predicted few if any banking jobs would leave.

So how's Timmy's prediction working out?

William Connolley said...

I think if you measured it by jobs that have moved so far, he's doing pretty well. This tells me there are ~400k "finance and insurance" jobs, and they seem to expect that to increase; whereas stories of people leaving are in the hundreds or thousands. Perhaps you have better numbers?

James Annan said...

Ah, back in the land of the living. Knew that science bloggy fad wouldn't last :-)

Phil Hays said...

You might read my reference, for a start.

This will be more interesting in 18 months. Assuming, of course, that no sanity outbreak occurs.

Unix wise saying: He who plays in root will bring down tree.

BBD said...

Stoat found...

Test comment, so please ignore or delete - I'm having probs posting to Blogger for some reason.