My attempts to wait for the end of the little tiff between the MM and the MMs1 has failed: here am I.My graph shows one measure of the state of play: some version of "the oil price" though I have come to realise that its all a bit more complicated than I first thought; nonetheless some features can be clearly read, most notably that all is not over, but that the market expects reasonable flow in the near future. Are they right? Spoiler: I don't know.
My expectation - which shows how little I know of fanaticism and stupidity - was that the MMs would take the vague unclear deal on offer and use the inclarity to boast of victory whilst quietly stopping any overt naughtiness2, and everything would trail off. Unfortunately - unless you're a popcorn vendor or pundit, obvs - buoyed, quite likely, by idiot Western intellectuals telling them that they had won - they decided to keep up the attacks on random ships and got twatted in return. Neither side has any great regard for, or even it would seem understanding of, truth; so reading their words is of no great value. But the MM calling the MMs "scum" might turn out to mean something. Could it be that he has finally learnt that they have no intention of abiding by their words, and that Covenants, without the sword, are but words and of no strength? The weird thing is that he is so desperate for peace either because he loves peace, or because he loves votes that he is prepared to repeatedly overlook transgressions; not a strategy that works well in this area.
Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon continues, but that doesn't seem to be troubling either side at the moment, which makes sense, since it is no part of this conflict. Or at least, it shouldn't be. If the MMs insist on entangling it, I can't see that going well for them.
Singing3:
Then I stripped them, scalp from skull, and my hunting-dogs fed full,And their teeth I threaded neatly on a thong;And I wiped my mouth and said, "It is well that they are dead,For I know my work is right and theirs was wrong."
Updates
Don't expect blow-by-blow stuff.
* 2026/07/16: US strikes oil tanker with missiles as it enforces new Iran blockade. And Iran tells Houthis to close Red Sea oil route if US hits power network - oooooh yes bring it on. 07/22: Trump says he’ll hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on ships.
* 2026/07/23: US House passes war powers resolution directing Trump to end Iran conflict says the Graun. But the vote is party-partisan (as you can tell from the Graun quoting a lying pol (“This is not a partisan issue,” Jayapal said following the vote) and later on the Graun negates its own breathy headline by noting that Later on Thursday, the Senate rejected a similar resolution proposed by Democrat Chris Van Hollen in a 47-49 vote, largely along party lines. Having Congress try to run the war like this is bad.
Notes
1. I'm aware that sources suggest that the MMs are now sidelined by the menwithgunz; but that doesn't fit so well, and is anyway too new and doubtful to replace yet; and officially Iran remains a theocratic dictatorship. Wittily, I saw on X a re-translation into English of the Arabic version of some CENTCOM I think it was post, which started "The Supreme Leader has instructed US forces to...".
2. Given the obvious banal motive for Trump - that he wants peace so oil prices go down so that gas(oline) prices go down so that USAnians go back to sleep - I'm kinda baffled by the MMs thought processes. If they go around twatting ships and stopping traffic, yer MM is not going to be happy. Perhaps to try restating that: the MMs have leverage, by threatening to close Hormuz. But actually closing it, isn't leverage.
3. You will be wondering what I meant by that; I know I am. Reconstructing myself: firstly, I read it, and liked it. Second, I am gently mocking myself: the enthusiasm of the singer for the certainty of his cause is revealed as ill-founded in the next verse.
Refs
* ...The socialization process is what makes it difficult for us to see the rules of our own society as rules – having grown up with them, we have acquired a desire to act in the way that the rules require us to act, and so typically experience the behaviour as voluntary, even though it is constrained...
* We haven't got a clue if America will launch another “massive attack” on Iran - El Econo. Retitled for clarity (and it looks like they have retitled it too; orig).
11 comments:
Amusing. It is easy to get the various M&Ms confused, perhaps you should get a pack of colored ones next time. Anyone that hasn't been following you wouldn't have a clue as to what you are talking about.
However, this is truth. " Neither side has any great regard for, or even it would seem understanding of, truth; so reading their words is of no great value."
This isn't limited to just the M&Ms, of course. Or this topic, of course.
They're all crazy. The orange one surrounded by loons who feed his craziness, the M's likewise. See also Israel.
But what I'd like (as the planet is either bombed, baked or burnt) to read is your views on how AGW is going? Stoat used to do science really well.
We're in trouble is my view, much more so than even I thought, JSO we're right and are sane, Greenpeace, FoE likewise.
Western Europe may get serious, but they will have to fight a buoyant big oil (Trump) even as we burnt and cook.
And then there is the effect of CO2 on human health yet to come..
If I thought they were all crazy, I would be less interested, since analysis would be impossible. But you don't really mean that, you mean they act in ways you - and I - disapprove of, in pursuit of goals that you and I disapprove of.
As to the glorious past, well, I was a scientist then. Those days are long gone (see also Isaiah 26:14, WYC). I suppose I could note that for anyone desiring a carbon tax, the current increase in oil price is a jolly good thing, though I haven't noticed anyone arguing that, presumably for fear of being ripped limb from limb.
Link good for 7 days.
Claude AI summary:"The Iran war, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has broadened the case for clean energy from cutting emissions to strengthening energy security, since renewables offer domestic, price-predictable supply immune to embargoes—and China, which makes roughly 92% of the world's solar cells, 83% of battery cells, and 66% of EVs, is positioned to benefit most. In the war's first three months (March–May), Chinese exports of residential batteries rose 45%, EVs 57%, and solar cells jumped 80% in March (per BNEF and BloombergNEF), with standouts including the Philippines (solar imports more than doubled), Australia and India (batteries up 103% and 77%), and over 30 countries hitting record monthly EV sales in March—though some solar gains reflect front-loading ahead of China's April 1 tax-rebate expiration, with May shipments falling. Many governments in Asia and Europe seized the moment for durable policy shifts (China targeting over half its capacity from wind and solar by 2030; France doubling EV and heat-pump subsidies; the UK mandating heat pumps and solar on new homes; the Philippines offering clean-energy loans), while others opted for short-term fixes like fuel-tax holidays (Brazil, Georgia) or leaned harder on coal (Indonesia). Whether the surge sustains is uncertain, but if fuel prices stay high and energy security remains a priority, the momentum looks likely to hold."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-17/how-the-iran-war-is-driving-demand-for-clean-energy?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4NTA0MDc3NSwiZXhwIjoxNzg1NjQ1NTc1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSEkxMkJUOU5KTFYwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIyRTc0NUQ0NTJDQzg0OTYzOTMwNUQwMkIwMDRFMjM0QSJ9.RpYJqWAwz-LOB4ug_9KyJ0zMzHIPpHEs_L2K7dH6vdc
Instead of heeding George Washington's admonition to refrain from going abroad in search of monsters, Trump has invented some of his own.
https://x.com/RussellSeitz/status/2086726036390130025/photo/1
What Iran is trying to do is to seize a Commons.
Make ships pay to transit the Straits. Seize the ownership of international waters for Iran.
A good Randian Capitalist should welcome such an end of socialist ownership.
If we didn't want Iran to do that stuff (which everyone predicted they would do before the fighting started), perhaps we shouldn't have started a war with them.
I'm doubtful everyone predicted it. I certainly didn't, and yours is weak (Yanquis and Kikes twat the Mad Mullahs). But I agree the apparaent lack of planning is hard to excuse.
But I should acknowledge that part of your arguement against the war (that it is Trump's war) turns out to be correct: his direction of the war has, I think, made fighting it harder, and I should have considered that from the first.
I'm doubtful that commons are socialist. I'm sure that good classical liberals such as myself consider strong property rights to deserve great respect, and are hence against seizing anything. The Randians are fringe and it is unclear to me why you want to privilege their views; I certainly don't know them well enough to know if you are reporting them correctly.
"Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz."
"Iran has dropped enough hints over the years that it considers its leverage over the strait as a trump card. Tehran has greeted pretty much every crisis it has faced with the assertion of its ability to control the flow of oil and gas through this chokepoint and the threat to restrict traffic through the strait or close the waterway entirely." https://theconversation.com/iran-has-been-threatening-to-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-for-years-its-a-key-part-of-tehrans-defence-strategy-279237
Between 2011-12, the then Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened to close the strait in response to new sanctions from the west over its nuclear energy program. Again, in 2018 when the US president, Donald Trump, withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal struck by his predecessor Barack Obama and began to further intensify the sanctions regime against the country, Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani threatened to close the waterway.
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