2025-11-20

An Enquiry Concerning the Principles of Morals

PXL_20251119_181428206 An Enquiry Concerning the Principles of Morals is a book by Scottish enlightenment philosopher David Hume. I'll stop quoting from Wiki there because the rest of the article isn't so great, in my humble opinion. Be warned that whilst I of course regard my own views as the finest available, I am to some extent riding my hobby horse in this review, and indeed in bothering to read the thing at all. Follow along with the text from Gutenberg.

Context: as we all know, The Foundations of Morality were ably described by Hazlitt in 1964 and less ably paraphrased by me as a system of general rules that ensure social cooperation in the long-term for everyone's benefit. Hume doesn't know that, since he died in 1776 and wrote his book in 1751. But it is interesting to see how far he got.

The answer is that he did well, and indeed reading him I find more sense than elsewhere, but he still only gets a partial credit.

Wiki is keen to tell me that he thinks the foundations of morals lie with sentiment, not reason; that might arguably be true, but isn't really interesting, and rather misses the point6. I wonder if I might make some attempt to improve the article but I doubt I have the strength of will; instead I contented myself with some cosmetic enhancement.

Instead, Hume's principle contention is that morality is grounded on usefulness; specifically, usefullness to society as a whole. This, you will immeadiately notice, bears a strong resemblance to Hazlitt's theory, in that the kind of usefullness Hume is thinking of is fostering the bonds of society.

Some quotes for Utility: We may observe that, in displaying the praises of any humane, beneficent man, there is one circumstance which never fails to be amply insisted on, namely, the happiness and satisfaction, derived to society from his intercourse and good offices... As these topics of praise never fail to be employed, and with success, where we would inspire esteem for any one; may it not thence be concluded, that the utility, resulting from the social virtues, forms, at least, a PART of their merit, and is one source of that approbation and regard so universally paid to them? and In all determinations of morality, this circumstance of public utility is ever principally in view; and wherever disputes arise, either in philosophy or common life, concerning the bounds of duty, the question cannot, by any means, be decided with greater certainty, than by ascertaining, on any side, the true interests of mankind. If any false opinion, embraced from appearances, has been found to prevail; as soon as farther experience and sounder reasoning have given us juster notions of human affairs, we retract our first sentiment, and adjust anew the boundaries of moral good and evil. He does notice, though, that there are sometimes difficulties in deciding what is useful: Giving alms to common beggars is naturally praised; because it seems to carry relief to the distressed and indigent: but when we observe the encouragement thence arising to idleness and debauchery, we regard that species of charity rather as a weakness than a virtue.

Section 3 discusses Justice. This is odd, to me, because Justice is not part of Morality. Morality is sort-of short-range Justice, and Justice long-range Morality2. My book's annotations offer me Hume is not thinking of justice in terms of criminal justice. He is discussing political rights and rules of property. But that doesn't really help; Justice, in these texts, is usually such rather than criminal justice. So I hold this to be a flaw in Hume. He offers the interesting: Were there a species of creatures intermingled with men, which, though rational, were possessed of such inferior strength, both of body and mind, that they were incapable of all resistance, and could never, upon the highest provocation, make us feel the effects of their resentment and concludes that the necessary consequence, I think, is that we should be bound by the laws of humanity to give gentle usage to these creatures, but should not, properly speaking, lie under any restraint of justice with regard to them, nor could they possess any right or property, exclusive of such arbitrary lords. He offers animals as an example; but that fails, because they are not rational. He offers women, under some circumstances, as another; that too fails, as he himself admits. I think that such creatures, were they to exist, would be disadvantaged; but I see no reason why they would not be part of Justice. I also, on reflection, can't see why he brought the idea up.

Section 4, Of Political Society, contains Why abridge our native freedom, when, in every instance, the utmost exertion of it is found innocent and beneficial? It is evident, that, if government were totally useless, it never could have place, and that the sole foundation of the duty of allegiance is the ADVANTAGE, which it procures to society, by preserving peace and order among mankind which I find dubious. He fails to consider what we see in some places today, effectively govt-by-brigands. But his general point, that we tolerate the restrictions that govt puts on our liberty because of their overall usefulness, remains. He also correctly notes what I think I've said elsewhere: that the laws of good manners [are] a kind of lesser morality.

Section 5, Why Utility Pleases, starts by observing that It seems so natural a thought to ascribe to their utility the praise, which we bestow on the social virtues, that one would expect to meet with this principle everywhere in moral writers, as the chief foundation of their reasoning and enquiry. This echoes Popper's plaintive wondering. I don't think he quite ever says that this utility would seem far too plebian for the elevated minds of the antients and the prissy moderns; morality is "meant" to be finer than that5. And there's the quite Hazlittian And as the public utility of these virtues is the chief circumstance, whence they derive their merit, it follows, that the end, which they have a tendency to promote, must be some way agreeable to us, and take hold of some natural affection. It must please, either from considerations of self-interest, or from more generous motives and regards.

Part 2 of that section begins Self-love is a principle in human nature of such extensive energy, and the interest of each individual is, in general, so closely connected with that of the community, that those philosophers were excusable, who fancied that all our concern for the public might be resolved into a concern for our own happiness and preservation... we must renounce the theory, which accounts for every moral sentiment by the principle of self-love. We must adopt a more public affection, and allow, that the interests of society are not, even on their own account, entirely indifferent to us. This I think is where he falls behind Hazlitt. He sees quite clearly that on occasion our own selfish desires will push us to behave immorally or unjustly. Unlike Hazlitt, he doesn't emphasise that in general, self and societies interests are strongly aligned (and we could not survive in society otherwise). Unlike Hazlitt, he doesn't quite realise that morality forces us to act against our own best - or at least immeadiate - interests at times. He is forced to take refuge in It is needless to push our researches so far as to ask, why we have humanity or a fellow-feeling with others. It is sufficient, that this is experienced to be a principle in human nature. But Hazlitt doesn't need this principle; because he has an economic multiple-timescale view.

This theory of utility explains why Celibacy, fasting, penance, mortification, self-denial, humility, silence, solitude, and the whole train of monkish virtues [are] everywhere rejected by men of sense; they are not true virtues for society. And so A gloomy, hair-brained enthusiast, after his death, may have a place in the calendar; but will scarcely ever be admitted, when alive, into intimacy and society.

I'll stop at a part of the conclusion: But what philosophical truths can be more advantageous to society, than those here delivered, which represent virtue in all her genuine and most engaging charms, and makes us approach her with ease, familiarity, and affection? The dismal dress falls off, with which many divines, and some philosophers, have covered her; and nothing appears but gentleness, humanity, beneficence, affability; nay, even at proper intervals, play, frolic, and gaiety. She talks not of useless austerities and rigours, suffering and self-denial. She declares that her sole purpose is to make her votaries and all mankind, during every instant of their existence, if possible, cheerful and happy; nor does she ever willingly part with any pleasure but in hopes of ample compensation in some other period of their lives. The sole trouble which she demands, is that of just calculation, and a steady preference of the greater happiness. Notice that the self and society are deemed to be aligned, as long as we are capable of "just calculation" and "steady preference of the greater happiness". But for some, that is too much to ask.

Right, that's about yer lot; I've written enough on this. But before I go, some trivia. Hume was apparently disappointed by the reception of his A Treatise of Human Nature and attempted to improve his prose style in this tome4. Alas, while his writing is all very gentlemanly and good-natured, he constantly falls into over-flowery prose with convoluted reversed syntax and mostly refuses to write plain simple sentences; he learnt the wrong lessons. Trivia two is that he believes that we can only expect success, by following the experimental method, and deducing general maxims from a comparison of particular instances; this is very Baconian of him, and all too apt for the man who first formulated the Problem of Induction; we naturally forgive him for failing to forsee Popper's solution of the problem, by denying his method of producing science1. T3 is that Morality is fundamentally relational; it is our acts and effects that are moral, or otherwise. Hume however is inclined to think in terms of a more unipolar "moral character", perhaps a-la Aristotle.

Does reading moral philosophy make me any more moral? No. Per Kant, everyone has a good idea of what ordinary everyday morality is3. Similarly, no-one needs a background in number theory in order to do addition. But it does help make sense of edge cases, like international relations; or woke and our ever-shifting moral system.

Notes


1. I don't want to push this too hard here, but I think you can see this even in the text of his work. He does consider examples; but from them he pulls a theory - utility - and proceeds to "test" that, and discover that he cannot refute it. As yet another trivia point, I found this for myself recently: looking at - solving - one of those IQ test puzzles I found on the wub, where there is, effectively, a sequence and you have to find the next term, I realised that what I was doing was guessing patterns, and then testing them.

2. There's another aspect between them that I don't think Hume mentions, that Justice (in the sense I am thinking of; of obedience to the Law) is a negative virtue whereas Morality has both positive and negative. The Law will punish the unjust (ideally) but it will not reward the just. Whereas society punishes the immoral and rewards the moral. I almost think there ought to be a physical analogue for this, related to the long / short distinction.

3. Or from the present work, Such frequent occasion, indeed, have we, in common life, to pronounce all kinds of moral determinations, that no object of this kind can be new or unusual to us; nor could any FALSE views or prepossessions maintain their ground against an experience, so common and familiar.

4. There are some nice little bon-mots, of the kind I think a cultivated man is expected to include; for example: A man's time, when well husbanded, is like a cultivated field, of which a few acres produce more of what is useful to life, than extensive provinces, even of the richest soil, when over-run with weeds and brambles.

5. But there's another bon-mot to analogise this: If the ground, on which the shadow is cast, be not broken and uneven; nor the surface from which the image is reflected, disturbed and confused; a just figure is immediately presented, without any art or attention. And it seems a reasonable presumption, that systems and hypotheses have perverted our natural understanding, when a theory, so simple and obvious, could so long have escaped the most elaborate examination.

6. I feel obliged to write something, if incomplete, here. Already the book is slipping from my memory. Hume's point is that ultimately our desire rests on what-we-desire, which is sentiment, or feeling. Our ends cannot be rationally justified (sez 'e). But he is quite clear that rationality is needed to chose amongst our various possible actions.

Refs


* RETRACTED: Climatic consequences of the process of saturation of radiation absorption in gases by Jan Kubicki, Krzysztof Kopczyński, Jarosław Młyńczak.

2025-11-19

Is it pointless now to fight climate change?

Screenshot 2025-11-19 152036 It am dat Sabine again. Worth listening to I think, though you're not obliged to accept every word. Mostly interesting because she segues into SRM (see reflecting sunlight). Presumably triggered by the Nude Scientist article, but sadly it is paywalled.

Lest one should get too carried away, I notice that Shaun Thingy, when actually quoted on his own webpage, is a good deal less forward. For myself, I think what I thought before: that we should be researching it, and not put of by the harpy like shrieking of the "environmentalists" who are opposed; they are no more really friends of the Earth any more than the pro-Hamxs types actually have the best interests of the Pales at heart.

Somewhat relatedly, my evolving views on global warming by John M. Wallace is worth reading  (std note: the only ref to him on my blog I can find is this comment by crandles).

And while I'm here I should note Bill Gate's Three tough truths about climate. RP is, naturally enough, happy to hear it. And the usual nutters call it "soft denial". Mann doesn't quite use the D-word himself, but he does have stupid things to say on the subject. And we wonder why it is so hard to have an intelligent conversation on the subject.

Refs


* And right on cue, some self-righteousness from some climbers. I too regret melting glaciers, but we're all burning fossil fuels to get to the mounains, and no that is not the fault of the Evil Fossil Fuel companies, it is the fault of the people burning the fuels.

2025-11-17

500 economists and inequality experts from seventy countries support call for new ‘IPCC for inequality’?

PXL_20251113_121517658 Oh dear; it am dat Pilketty again, pushing his politics whilst masquerading as a scientist. See their letter, if you really want to see a denialist-style list of "experts"1. It seems that "inequality expert" is now a thing, like "genocide expert" was briefly a thing before they were exposed as frauds. As for their "Inequality is not inevitable" - it is bullshit. Or in somewhat more elegant language: Render possessions ever so equal, men's different degrees of art, care, and industry will immediately break that equality. Or if you check these virtues, you reduce society to the most extreme indigence; and instead of preventing want and beggary in a few, render it unavoidable to the whole community. The most rigorous inquisition too is requisite to watch every inequality on its first appearance; and the most severe jurisdiction, to punish and redress it. But besides, that so much authority must soon degenerate into tyranny, and be exerted with great partialities; who can possibly be possessed of it, in such a situation as is here supposed.

An "IPCC" for inequality is a terrible idea. The IPCC worked because there was broad substantial agreement on the physical basis of GW. There is no such basis in economics for TP's opinions on inequality; or rather, I suspect that there is broad consensus amongst economists that his views are wrong.

We should inquire into the origins of this nonsense. The letter is based on a report which styles itself "the G20 Extraordinary Committee of Independent Experts’ Report on Global Inequality". But is somewhat shy on telling us who actually commissioned the thing. Was it indeed the G20, as you might expect from the title? That would be disappointing if so, but it isn't so: instead we read that The Extraordinary Committee expresses its gratitude to the President of South Africa, His Excellency Cyril Ramaphosa, for constituting the G20 Extraordinary Committee for the South African G20 Presidency in 2025, and for commissioning it to publish this report. Unlike the G20, the South African govt cannot disappoint me - my opinion of it is too low. These experts have all the independence of those who wrote A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, but happily we can all see that for what it is (or so I assume - I still haven't read it).

I could go on I suppose but I'm sure you've got the point by now.

Oh, but I should add: I think - and I certainly hope - that this isn't a serious proposal and won't succeed. It's just an attempt to garner a bit of press coverage and some clicks.

Notes



Refs


* What the HELL is wrong with Europe? from Sabine Hossenfelder. Not a particularly great analysis mind you.

2025-10-28

Grokipedia

PXL_20250806_143406244 Musk's mildly-heralded Grokipedia is out as Beta 0.1; we should take a look. As I recall the last Wiki-clone was Justapedia, and that hasn't fared well. Gpedia is a better effort, though.

What is it? Of course, we turn to Wiki to find that it is AI - i.e. Grok - generated, but very clearly based on Wiki. Amusingly, turning to Grokipedia itself produces no results (it also plays badly with archive.is), which throws up the first obvious issue: it is significantly smaller than Wiki, at about 900,000 articles. Wiki still has the article about me (I've just updated it to say I'm retired); Gpedia doesn't, arguably a better choice but this is minor.

Searching for something neutral, I looked at Autun Cathedral (because I'd just come across this) and it seemed achingly familiar... this turned out to be because I'd been through in the summer. Comparing Gpedia with Wiki, Wiki is obviously superiour because it has images; I can't quite imagine how Gpedia has managed to fail in this aspect. The text is a virtual copy of Wiki, down to the error in reference 15 ("Capital: Virtues and Vices. Jean and Alexander Heard Library. {{cite book}}: |work= ignored (help)"). But that's not a problem; Wiki is freely copiable, that's part of the point (though is Gpedia we wonders?). Problem two is the lack of internal links in Gpedia; again, I struggle to understand how they've screwed that one up.

Let's try something more controversial. Was George Floyd "an African American man who was murdered by a white police officer" or was he "an American man with a lengthy criminal record including convictions for armed robbery, drug possession, and theft in Texas from 1997 to 2007". Answer: he was both. You get no prizes for guessing which quote comes from which 'pedia; and note that for purposes of exposition I have only taken a short leading quote from both.

Tip-toeing up to GW, let's look at Global Cooling: G, W. Here the Gpedia text isn't from Wiki; it reads like someone has pushed Grok to do an analysis; it has done passably but the Gpedia text is worse than Wiki's.

Now to look at GW directly. A year or so back Wiki renamed its GW article to Climate Change, because <fashion>, so Gpedia wins by having the content at GW, although bizarrely at an article called Global warming (disambiguation) which can only be because it has picked up on Wiki's Global warming (disambiguation) page for some odd reason. But Gpedia loses by absurdly including minor nonsense about some rap album in the lede. It also loses by lacking detail, and above all by not having easy links to subsidiary articles, which makes following up on ideas much harder. And it lacks images, a major blunder. But as to slant, it is all fine; I had to go down quite a long way to "Surveys of climate scientists indicate that while over 99% of recent peer-reviewed studies endorse human causation as primary, approximately 14% attribute warming roughly equally to human and natural factors, highlighting persistent debate on precise partitioning" to find something objectionable. That statement is supported by two refs; the first is news.cornell.edu/stories/2021/10/more-999-studies-agree-humans-caused-climate-change and is sane, but doesn't support the statement; the second is by Scafetta. I also notice that I don't get a "see edits" button for that page.

Looking at The Theory of the Leisure Class, I recall not liking the Wiki articles I used for convenience; but Gpedia is if anything worse. It sez "Veblen examines the origins and behaviors of the leisure class, a non-productive upper stratum that sustains social dominance through displays of wealth rather than contributions to societal utility" but that's wrong; as I noted, the title is a lie and Grok has been misled. I suspect it is reporting what TV himself thought, but errs by stating it as a fact; he makes the mistake that nowadays would be analoguous to the "progressive" idea that bankers or venture capitalists are parasites and contribute nothing.

news-grok But this is all v0.1. I look forward to something out of beta being rather better. Oh, before I'm off: what does yer meeja say? The answer is... meh, nothing interesting.

Refs



My tribe


Doesn't quite make its own post.

Screenshot 2025-11-13 211738

From yourpoliticaltribe.com. Not all questions quite made sense, I did my best to answer sensibly. I think I'm "happy" with the result: economically right, obvs; and socially central. Your ideology is determined by three key dimensions:

* Economic Score (98.4): Measures your views on economic policy, from liberal (0) to conservative (100)
* Social Score (60.1): Measures your views on social issues, from liberal (0) to conservative (100)
* Establishment Score (30.0): Measures your trust in institutions, from pro-establishment (0) to anti-establishment (100)

2025-10-21

The Theory of the Leisure Class

PXL_20251021_195132252The Theory of the Leisure Class is a book by Thorstein "Bunde" Veblen. It isn't very good. It has one good idea - conspicuous consumption1 - but spins that out into page after page of turgid Marxist-tinged prose6. Read it for yourself, here, if you dare. I started off reading carefully; about a third of the way through I became bored by the repetition; by two thirds I was skipping.

One of the many things wrong with it is the title, which is a lie. "Leisure class" in the context of the Gilded Age brings to mind the idle rich but these, ostensibly at least, are not his subject; instead "The leisure class as a whole comprises the noble and the priestly classes2, together with much of their retinue. The occupations of the class are correspondingly diversified; but they have the common economic characteristic of being non-industrial. These non-industrial upper-class occupations may be roughly comprised under government, warfare, religious observances, and sports". So the leisure class actually has occupation, generally full-time. I think what he is doing here is using "Leisure class"" as a technical term quite different from its commonplace meaning, but relying on us to elide the two uses; but this is dishonest3; and he should just have written "non-industrial", or invented a term such as "class X".

The other thing wrong with the title - and much of the text - is the "class" element. I think it fits happily into his Marxist-type outlook, but really there's no need to bring class into this at all; his observation is simply that people like to signal status, and one way of doing that is to demonstrate their wealth, and one way to demonstrate wealth is conspicuous consumption: to consume pointlessly and visibly. I can't see any reason why this would be restricted to any particular class, even if there were any real class boundaries; although obvs it will be more obvious amongst those with money above the survival level. Fans of feminism won't be happy with his observation (recall we're back in 1899) that women, as the chattels of their husbands, are particularly suitable to consume conspicuously - by doing nothing useful - thereby vicariously consuming for their husbands; but this seems fair enough for the times. Fans of religion won't be happy with the idea that ministers of religion consume vicariously for their absent masters.

TV presents his work as a theory, or perhaps as a discussion, or an inquiry; but with my Popper hat on I wonder if it should be considered in any way a scientific theory? Is it testable; could it be falsified? I suspect not; I think it could perhaps join Freudian analysis or Marxism on Popper's list of anti-examples. Wiki quotes Mencken saying Do I enjoy a decent bath because I know that John Smith cannot afford one—or because I delight in being clean? Do I admire Beethoven's Fifth Symphony because it is incomprehensible to Congressmen and Methodists—or because I genuinely love music? Do I prefer terrapin à la Maryland to fried liver, because plowhands must put up with the liver—or because the terrapin is intrinsically a more charming dose? And this seems to be a problem for TV which I don't think he addresses: in many instances he has no particular criterion for distinguishing when a consumption is merely conspicuous, and it is hard to see how he could have9. This seems related to the Puritan type idea that some things are necessary, and others not. Nonetheless I'm quite happy with his overall idea.

In the preface, he talks about the data employed in his argument, which makes me snort because there is no data. Indeed most of the text, page after page, remains resolutely abstract without even examples; but as to any actual data, it is entirely absent.

There are some minor oddities. For example: The duel is in substance a more or less deliberate resort to a fight as a final settlement of a difference of opinion. This is wrong: a duel is to settle points of honour. At one point he tries to explain women's fashion - he is fascinated by corsets - and correctly I think identifies it as signalling an inability to do any physical labour. He also tries to explain why each season sets new trends but his explanation does not convince. There is one, within his theory: that demonstrating you have the spare to allow devoting time to following the latest fashions demonstrates wealth; as does having the ability to acquire said fashion earlier than others.

I could do without the dodgy race-science elements; this doesn't seem to be necessary (his theory after all is quite generic8) and I didn't find the dolicho-blond stuff enlightening.

His schema7 has women-as-chattels as natural; towards the end he notices movements for female emancipation but does not seem sympathetic4: In a sense, then, the new-woman movement marks a reversion to a more generic type of human character, or to a less differentiated expression of human nature. It is a type of human nature which is to be characterized as proto-anthropoid, and, as regards the substance if not the form of its dominant traits, it belongs to a cultural stage that may be classed as possibly sub-human. This isn't a problem of his theory, obvs.

How much does all this apply today? CC amongst certain groups still exists, but I think in modified form. I don't think it applies much to me5 or those I know. Dressing well - dress is one of TV's few examples - is now available so readily that it doesn't form much of a signifier; I like the idea that luxury belief is now one of the marks. And he will certainly have to find himself some other class demarcation, now that "industrial" employment is so reduced.

Trivia: the idea of a Veblen Good, which is named for him, is nowhere mentioned.

Update: 2025/10/25: I discussed this with infants and wife. They were less inclined to believe the underlying theory than I was; and more inclined to say that it is impossible to separate CC from things-you-like.

Notes


1. I'm being somewhat lazy in giving wiki refs for all that; in these aspects I do not particularly recommend the wiki articles; I'm just using them to identify the concepts.

2. The book is full of language like that.

3. An idea taken up later by John "Justice as Fairness" Rawls.

4. To be fair, he has rather more to say than just this. To quote somewhat more sympathetically: But... futility of life or of expenditure is obnoxious... The impulse is perhaps stronger upon the woman than upon the man to live her own life in her own way and to enter the industrial process of the community at something nearer than the second remove.

5. But I would say that, wouldn't I? Perhaps blogging counts as a conspicuous display of spare time. We're back to the problem of how to you tell if an activity is CC or not.

6. See my witty para 3 on "Meritocratic" Sandel.

7. Not the CC idea; that is, in principle, entirely sex-agnostic. By "schema" I'm referring to his cod history of social development; characteristically this not only has no examples or data, it also employs his own terms to describe things, so you can't even tell what periods he is referring to.

8. Belatedly I recall to mention: at some point, that I cannot now be bothered to find, TV is critical of capitalism, because of the CC it encourages. But this is silly. CC is a generic feature of human nature driven by status seeking; the concept works in any system.

9. Another of his examples is studying classics and dead / useless languages being respectable, because useless. This sort-of feels plausible-ish, but doesn't fit quite properly.

Refs


It’s not the End of the World as We Know It

sp500-1y Back in April I presciently predicted, or perhaps just noted, The End of the World as We Know It, due to the Mango Mussolini's idiot tariff policy. But the sad story turns out to have a happy "ending": things have largely recovered. I put ending into quotes because, obvs, there's plenty of time for things to go wrong.

You may, like me, be tempted to suggest that all of that recovery and surge is AI hype, but you're probably wrong: el Econo reckons One concern is that artificial-intelligence investment spending, especially on data centres, is the only thing keeping the party going, spelling disaster if investors cool on the technology. This argument is strongest in America, where investment in information-processing equipment and software (IPES) accounted for about 40% of growth in real GDP over the past year. Yet, at an absolute minimum, two-thirds of IPES has nothing to do with AI. The data include, for instance, a business buying a computer. In addition, outside America there is no evidence whatsoever that IT is driving growth. Instead, the story is the resilience of the real economy even when the pols fuck it up, as long as they don't do so too badly.


Refs


2025-10-07

Prospects for Peace

PXL_20251002_145837835In the Middle East that is; the Russian invasion of Ukraine is doomed to grind on for longer I fear; more on that anon. Trump has a cunning plan, and Netenyahu has accepted it1; Hamxs's rather delayed response is "yes, but"2, as expected; Trump the eternal optimist3 thinks that things are going well.

Talks, as ever, continue. But while they do I have a chance to predict the future and get it wrong6, so everyone can tell me how wrong I was. Do you have a better prediction? Leave it in the comments5.

Hamxs is soaked in blood and has no function beyond terrorism, or resistance as they would put it; agreeing to disarm would be organisational suicide, so I don't see that happening. Looking at the plan, the actionable timeline appears to be:

* If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.
* Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned.
* Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after 7 October 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.

So nominally (a) both agree; (b) fighting stops, some kind of withdrawl; (c) within 72 hours all hostages released; (d) Israel releases some terrorists. I find myself doubtful that Hamxs will go for (c). The hostages are useless to them, indeed a millstone round their neck, but they have been too stupid to see that in the past and I don't see them getting any clearer in their thinking.

What of other instances where long-term terrorists have given up? The obvious analogue is Ireland, where the IRA eventually gave up. There were key differences though: mostly, the conflict was embedded in civil society on both sides; and the world was obviously just passing it by; the public and the world was not egging them on4. This was organisational suicide for the IRA but not for the individual members, a possible model for Hamxs, but the situations are not really analogous.

Speaking of the public egging them on, and referencing Polling Pales, there's an updated poll from May. Whether it can be trusted I leave you to decide for yourself; I'll discuss it as though it can be. I'll start with killed-and-injured, because it is good news: the proportion of families with killed-or-injured has gone down; only slightly, but definitely. This is remarkable. [2025/10/28: more good news: the proportion of families with dead-or-injured continues to decline, down to 72% on October].

pales-2025

The report doesn't think it is remarkable, because it doesn't remark on it (update: and in Oct, does its best to draw your eyes away from the decline). It is not impossible of course: if you manage to wipe out enough entire families, it could happen. But more likely it is either inaccuracies, or sampling errors, or people lying, or whatever7

A solid majority remain delusional: A majority of 56% (65% in the West Bank 42% in the Gaza Strip) expect Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement in a few days while 41% do not expect that. That's essentially the same as a year previous. On the plus side, 48% of Gazans... say they support the demonstrations that took place over the past two months in the Gaza Strip demanding that Hamas abandon control over that Strip so there may be some hope. About 50% would be willing to emigrate; I would say that's a good solution if it were possible to find somewhere to take them. And (fig 17) armed struggle is now less popular than negotiations, at least in Gaza; the West Bank, which sees rather less armed struggle, prefers to fight.

Overall I think that agreement leading to release of the hostages is unlikely for now, whilst hoping that I am wrong.

Returning to reporting of yer conflict, Aunty says Hamxs wants to keep enough firepower to defend itself against Palestinians who want to take their revenge for nearly two decades of brutal rule and the catastrophe the Hamas attacks brought down on them.

Not really fitting into my flow of text, but I feel I ought to say the obvious: the claims of Israeli genocide are bollox and mostly malicious.


Notes

oglaf-dick

1. As far as I can tell, unconditionally. He has subsequently said things that make this somewhat hard to square, but nonetheless the words "I support your plan to end the war in Gaza which achieves our war aims" (or their Hebrew equivalent? The meeja is really appalling at providing full information) have been uttered.

2. Actually it is far more complicated than that with various factions disagreeing, and Hamxs's actual words being so ambiguous as to be close to meaningless, as expected. The fat corrupt political types living in luxury in Qatar are naturally keen to continue their fat lives, though the recent bombing may have reminded them that they don't get a free pass; the menwithgunz in Gaza have no lives other than terrorism, so are unlikely to want to turn into unemployable ex-terrorists at peace.

3. You will correctly object that Trump is also an eternal liar and uninterested in distinguishing true from false, but I think that he is also genuinely optimistic, like many such.

4. Indeed, I imagine most of the IRA's wives and mothers were urging them to give up. Shamefully, now, useless deluded folks in the West are still egging the Pales on. These people need to find meaning in their own lives, rather than other people's conflicts.

5. Speaking of comments, do try to avoid getting yourself spammed. Repeat offenders will just be suppressed.

6. 2025/10/09: Initial reports are promising and (10/10) a ceasefire appears to be in effect. 10/11: ceasefire still seems to be in place, but "Hamas hasn’t changed. It still believes that weapons and violence are the only means to keep its movement alive". Joy in Israel and Gaza but not amongst the "progressive" in the West. 10/14: Pales behaving badly: part 1, part 2, part 3. Hamxs have now released the hostages they haven't killed, but not the ones they have killed; this bad-faith slow-walking isn't promising. 10/28: Hamxs still slow-walking the hostages (and other dodgy stuff), and the prospects for phase two don't look good; and just as I say that, more fighting (more).

7. Another interesting discrepancy: see this X post and the corresponding Graun article: the male / female death rate inferred from orphancy is 6, not the 3 reported by Hamxs.

Refs


Bring Back the Internet Gatekeepers says RH. I remain doubtful (in general; I will of course moderate here as the spirit moves me).
* "A whole lot of BS political views basically amount to assuming that life in our hard won civilisations is just the way things are, and that you can simply remove the foundations".
Will the absence of robotaxis in Europe mark the moment its citizens notice how far their continent has fallen behind?
* "Gaza is awash with guns and desperate people, and Hamas has no interest in relinquishing its weapons. More repression and chaos may await the devastated strip": El Econo.
* Debunking the Genocide Allegations: A Reexamination of the Israel-Hamas War from October 7, 2023 to June 1, 2025. Danny Orbach, Jonathan Boxman, Yagil Henkin, Jonathan Braverman.

2025-09-14

The Hunt in the Forest and friends

Following my previous brilliantly successful venture into art criticism, I feel emboldened to comment on The Hunt in the Forest, and friends. Wiki tells me The Hunt in the Forest (also known as The Hunt by Night or simply The Hunt) is a painting by the Italian artist Paolo Uccello, made around 1470. It is perhaps the best-known painting in the Ashmolean Museum, Oxford, England. The painting is an early example of the effective use of perspective in Renaissance art, with the hunt participants, including people, horses, dogs and deer, disappearing into the dark forest in the distance. It was Uccello's last known painting before his death in 1475. And all that is fair enough.

PXL_20250912_152651205

But I find "an early example of the effective use of perspective" a bit weaselly; it is more like "my first attempt at perspective" and is quite crude (although the Ashmolean tells us that "Paolo di Dono was celebrated in his lifetime as a master of perspective"). The device of having regularly spaced trees is crude; the trees themselves don't look real, more like a child's idea of a tree (they are also far too regular to be a forest, and have been pruned, so this is a plantation); and having all the interest as a band of colour at the bottom leaves the top three fifths of the painting rather dull. I'm also inclined to find him uncomfortable drawing 3d figures; most of the men and horses and dogs are distinctly 2d (the "stopping horse" is particularly obvious), the few that aren't (e.g. the white horse on the right; note also the perspective goes squiffy there; the horses feet are level with the tree but its head is on our side) rather stand out.

More generally, and I say this because I was reading Aunt Agatha's "Five Little Pigs" which features a passionate modern artist, I find so much of the early stuff distinctly lacking in passion, or life.

PXL_20250912_154408856

Here you can have the wallpaper too, since it was lovely. The attention is all on the skin and muscle tone of Christ (days dead, but weirdly still bleeding). The single tear carefully placed on the cheek of the woman in blue doesn't make for emotion; nor the elf in red.

Refs

Abolish the FCC.

Courts are Checking Trump More Effectively than Many Think.

* Starmer is a twat.

Book review: the Decipherment of Linear B.

Book review: Herr Doktor Thorne.

Me vs the world on Spinoza.

Two Prominent Left-Liberal Thinkers Reconsider Libertarianism.

What Ended the Great Depression?

2025-08-25

A meta review of the no-longer-new DOE report

Screenshot 2025-08-25 104520 I still haven't read the bloody thing, and at this rate I never will, but happily CarbonBrief have read it for me. I'm going to assume that they've put their two best criticisms up front - you'd be mad to do anything else - and those are:

The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.

It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.

Sadly, Stefan Rahmstorf was foolish enough to believe that CarbonBrief make sense

But "CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed" is true; and "excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial" is also true. I mean FFS, "excessively aggressive" is almost by definition detrimental. These people are clowns. Of course, that doesn't actually make the report itself good; it just shows you how uselessly debased the "discussion" is.

Update

DOE Climate Working Group RIP says RP Jr and this appears to be true. With just a little luck, I may never have to read the thing; the virtues of prevarication. RP says "Based on my connecting the dots, the disbanding is the direct result of a lawsuit filed by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Union of Concerned Scientists arguing that the empanelment of the CWG violated the bureaucracy in triplicate act" which might be true; though if it is, it displays a considerably greater respect for the niceties of the law than the Trump administration has shown elsewhere. Perhaps, having got their headlines, and the text of the report, they just don't really care that much? Andy Revkin also comments. And Gavin says DOE CWG Report “Moot”? Perhaps interestingly, there's nothing on Curry's ClimateEtc. Tamino suggests they pulled the rug so as to avoid having to revise the report in light of the numerous substantive comments; it is a nice idea but not fully convincing. Ars says Feds try to dodge lawsuit against their bogus climate report but I'm not sure that adds much.

Refs

If You’re So Smart, Why Aren’t You Happy?

2025-08-23

A week in the lakes

PXL_20250812_084525914 Once again I'm briefly back. This time my excuse was a week - or thereabouts - canoeing around Stora La, a large lake in Sweden; bookended by stays in Oslo, Goteborg and Stockholm. All very pleasant and civilised, there were even composting toilets. 428 photos are available.

Refs


* A disappointing article from Veronique de Rugy in Reason on the new DOE report. The comments ref my old If it isn’t catastrophic we’ve got nothing to worry about, have we? as did ATTP recently.

2025-08-08

Briefly...

PXL_20250730_113508065 In the ever-decreasing intervals between me having to be elsewhere, I find time to write a few words.

First, if you've wondered where I've been, the answer has been France, and to a lesser extent Italy; see pix here if you really want to. Here's the summary page I wrote, though you may fail to read it.  Would suit fans of cathedrals or mountains mostly. My featured image is in the cloisters of St Jean Baptiste, in St Jean de Maurienne1. Belatedly written up here.

Available Strava traces include the Col du Galibier from the north, very slowly; and the Gran Paradisio from the Emma Vittorio II hut, a lovely climb.

But what of the new DOE Climate report, I hear you cry? Well, ATTP has written a more sensible and well considered version of what I might have written, had I had time to read the thing. I did write The East is Red in 2017; do I need to change anything? I guess the question is what will come of it; I'd be more immeadiately worried about various other Trumpian madnesses, like cancelling a pile of mRNA research.

I leave you with me sleeping by the Loire by moonlight.

PXL_20250807_000704883

Refs


* Phil was kind enough to link to the DOE report.

Notes


1. And not in Chalon-sur-Saone.

2025-07-28

Book review: An Introduction to Chinese Philosophy

PXL_20250728_085618816 Having dissed the Greeks, it's time for the Chinese. I assure you that this is a coincidence. But what isn't a matter of chance is the illustrations used on the covers of the books: here, the Chinese one is a restful well-ordered garden such as a Zen Buddhist might contemplate within. Whereas the Greek one is of a science-y, analytic nature. That's kinda the overall distinction I had coming into this book, and I didn't lose it in the course of my reading.

Of itself it saysThis second edition of An Introduction to Chinese Philosophy presents a comprehensive introduction to key ideas and arguments in early Chinese philosophy. Written in clear, accessible language, it explores philosophical traditions including Confucianism, Daoism, Mohism, Legalism and Chinese Buddhism, and how they have shaped Chinese thought. Drawing on the key classical texts as well as up-to-date scholarship, the discussions range across ethics, metaphysics and epistemology, while also bringing out distinctive elements in Chinese philosophy that fall between the gaps in these disciplinary divisions, hence challenging some prevailing assumptions of Western philosophy. Topics include human nature, selfhood and agency; emotions and behaviour; the place of language in the world; knowledge and action; and social and political responsibility. This second edition incorporates new ideas and approaches from some recently excavated texts that change the landscape of Chinese intellectual history.

I don't think the book managed to impart to my somewhat careless reading much of value of their philosophy, so consider this a rather shallow review, of the book and of the ideas it covers, but that very shallowness is also a judgement. There's a lot of "correlative" stuff: "as above, so below" which is of course drivel, at least if the "above" is the heavens; though the book is far too polite to say so. Perhaps "above" could be interpreted as the character of the rulers, and so we learn by analogy the idea of having virtuous rule? It is a bit like that all the way through: you can make your own interpretations.

Similarly, towards the end and so fresh in my mind, there's the Book of Changes. Literally, this is divination and therefore drivel, but the book is far too polite to say so. Metaphorically, it is a set of ideas and images that can be applied to various situations, an idea which the book likes. But sometimes those images don't chime with modern life: the proper place for the woman is inside the family, the proper place for the man is outside. How should we interpret this? Perhaps those were just ideas for their times, and we treat it as illustrating historical sociology but of no great philosophical import. Or perhaps it was timeless wisdom, and we're wrong (naturally I take for granted the classical-liberal "treat people as individuals, not members of tribes or sex"). Or perhaps it is telling us that a "family unit" is better if nurtured from within by one, who we can label for these purposes "woman", and represented to the outside by someone labelled "man". That's not an interpretation the antients would have liked; the book has no discussion of this, effectively it just says "oh dear".

Most of it seems to be "how to rule", but in a way distinctly different to the approach the Greeks would use. No-one attempts to collate different constitutions and study them; no-one tries to start from first principles and design a constitution however ineptly; instead, if there is a theme, it is to have virtuous rulers.

The last chapter is on Chinese Buddhism, of interest to me because my wife is Buddhist. And it helpfully describes the waves of ideas coming over from India, and then fermenting in place. For my lack of sympathy with Buddhism, see-also This Being That Becomes and Living With Awareness.

2025-07-22

Book review: Greek Science

Screenshot 2025-07-22 143146
I happened to pick up a copy of Greek Science by Benjamin Farrington - well, time hangs heavy on retired hands, as Kipling warned us. The book is not new - part one was published in 1944, part two in 1949 - so is missing any more modern scholarship; perhaps also importantly BF was a professor of classics and in some respects seems uncomfortable with the actual science. Time and again he veers off into philosophy. Perhaps this is unavoidable; so much of the antient Greek stuff is actually that, and it is what they are really famous for, but nonetheless he lets himself get distracted at the expense of actually talking about science.

To get my headline thought out of the way early: it becomes ever clearer to me that, using the - correct - paradigm that science is characterised by conjectures and refutations, the antient Greeks were fertile in their conjectures but never really knuckled down to the hard work of refutations. And I can't resist adding that any old fool can come up with fairy stories. I'll also stick to my previous idea that none of this actually mattered to them, and it is unlikely that you will knuckle down to hard work about things that don't really matter.

BF himself evolves the idea that their problem was their slave society: since no self-respecting freeman ever did any manual work, they were a bit stuck for observing the processing of metal in forges, or even tinkering around. BF is a Marxist, though, so I'm suspicious of his sociology.

PXL_20250722_132807121~2 They had also fairly early on realised that, in a philosophical sense, it was difficult to see how you can acquire certain true knowledge as opposed to mere informed opinion about the world, from observation; and took the fork of retreating into the world of Ideals and Forms in search of Truth, which of course failed; but again, left them disinclined to spend much effort looking at the world.

But what, I hear you ask, of the actual science? This was most of my reason for picking up the book and I was disappointed by the thinness. We get, of course, Euclid; but that is maths, not science; BF gives no hint that he understands the difference. At one point he tells me that Archimedes invented the Archimedian screw, which does not fill me with confidence; and that no-one knows how it works; ditto. There is some geography, and some medicine, but of the latter very little of what they could actually do, and rather more of opinions.

BF wonders how it was that they achieved so much, and yet failed to step over into Modern Science - well, modern meaning the slow gradual rise that started ~1500 years after them. My answer would be that their apparent "so much" is largely illusion and exaggerated crippling respect; they were missing so much basic tech.

Overall BF is too deeply in thrall towards the antients-called-greats to be useful as anything other than a superficial introduction.

Oops: bits I forgot: BF think that experimentation, and the experimental method, are the hallmarks of Science, and so is ecstatic at the few occasions he finds the Greeks doing it. We cannot expect our professor of classics to have read the 1934 Logik der Forschung. Zur Erkenntnistheorie der modernen Naturwissenschaft and I doubt he read the 1959 English version either; but nonetheless he is subtly wrong; science is grounded in experience or experiment; but the hallmark is testing theories. He's also rather keen on Bacone, which is also an error.

Refs


2025-06-17

Reflections on recent events in the Middle East

Screenshot_20250616-134446 My last post started off as this post, so to speak, but mutated. Happily, the situation hasn't changed much in the last few days. Before we proceed to any substance, pause to admire the graphic, which admirably demonstrates how useless CND, and by extension the "progressive" left, is1.

Anyway, to set the scene: for years, the Mad Mullahs have been enriching uranium and pissing about on the margin of have-we-enriched-it-enough-to-make-a-bomb-soon. Various meeja have produced articles along the lines of "were they actually about to do it now" and all of that is wank; it would be impossible to know; it would be reasonable to not be prepared to leave it as a risk.

So, having conveniently smoothed their local environment, the Front Wheels decided to twat the MMs; naturally, the MMs fired back. As far as I can see, the FWs are using precise targetting, the MMs are using scattershot volleys of imprecise missiles most of which get shot down or tracked into the wilderness. The MMs haven't hit anything significant; the FWs by contrast have taken out a lot of the MMs military infrastructure3, and if nothing unexpected intervenes, will go on to win. Quite what "winning" will look like is unclear. Ideally, a revolution. Failing that, just destruction of all their significant military and nuclear stuff.

Should the USAnians join the fun? They are moving piles of air tankers regionwards which would be expensive if it was but a whim; I wouldn't be astonished if the Mango Mussolini decides that the Kikes are winning, so he should join in late2 and claim all the credit. And I bet the US military would love to know whether their bigger bunker-busters actually work for real. Notice how helpful it is that Russia has exhausted itself in Ukraine and has no strength left to meddle elsewhere; relatedly, Syria is being sensible.

A brief note on negotiations: the MMs were never serious about this, presumably because they would have lost face. Even now they are pissing around insisting on a ceasefire-before-talks, which is stupid. I'm not even sure why they are bothering; the Ks are ignoring them, obvs; the EU are paying attention because they love talking, but the Ks are ignoring the EU too, obvs4.

This post notes that Israel is winning with fighters against a country noted for its drones; whereas the twitterati consensus was that fighters are obsolete in an era of drone warfare. That's not quite fair, because the MM's drones are slow-moving bombs; but it does illustrate the point that drones aren't any use against invisible fighters at altitude and speed and range.

What could go wrong? The MMs could actually scrape enough Pu together to make a bomb; but then they'd have to deliver it, which would be tricky given the ~5% suvival rate of their missiles so that seems quite unlikely. They could amuse themselves targetting ships in the gulf, but that's a quick way to bring the USAnians down on their heads, so probably not a good idea; and anyway in a couple of days they won't even be able to do that.

Competition's eatin' the mice


2025/06/22: As the seminal LL Cool J put it in the eerily prescient Mama said knock you out:
Explosions, overpowerin'
Over the competition, I'm towerin'
Wrecking shop, when I drop
These lyrics that'll make you call the cops
Don't you dare stare
You better move, don't ever compare
Me to the rest that'll all get sliced and diced
Competition's payin' the price
Or to put it another way, the USAnians have indeed dropped the bomb. Not The Big One, just a few big ones. Death Star memes are available. I'm charmed by the way the MM ends his twit "Thank you for your attention to this matter"; it is as though he is still remembering his complimentary close from business school. The results of the twatting aren't obviously impressive; doubtless you've seen people trying to interpret the images (or here). The usual useless talking heads have volumes on what-might-Iran-do-now; for example Aunty; all of it worth every penny you paid for it. The Dems are predictably useless. ReportedlyThe Iranian Parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, and doubtless the popcorn vendors are desperately hoping the MMs do try to do this. 2025/06/23: "sadly" it looks like they've wimped out.

2025/07/17: Why did Israel strike Damascus? witter a variety of people, including the Economist. They also report "the attack killed at least one person and wounded several others" and fail to think about that at all; for some very big bangs, that is a remarkably low death count. More informatively, vidz appear to show them deliberately missing. So the obvious: it is a display of force by the Kikes, but deliberately trying to avoid casualties.

Notes


1. I was going to belabour exactly why, but realised it woud be pointless.

2. Like wot they always do.

3. This will become fairly obvious as the MMs run out of missiles and launchers over the next few days.

4. 2025/06/21: for sheer po-faced taking ourselves too seriously, you can't beat Aunty's Huge dilemmas lie ahead for UK over Iran. No-one gives a toss but the political class can wank themselves blind over it. But even there they can't help getting it hopelessly wrong: Other sources describe diplomacy as a "sticking plaster", questioning how effective it can be when Israel...; no, you clowns, the problem is that the MMs, who are losing, refuse to talk about the one important thing, their bomb plans.

Refs


Free-market economics is working surprisingly well - even Noah Smith is starting to see the light, but he has a way to go yet.
* Hard to Sue: A Feature Not a Bug; Good systems tune out crazy complainers.