My last post started off as this post, so to speak, but mutated. Happily, the situation hasn't changed much in the last few days. Before we proceed to any substance, pause to admire the graphic, which admirably demonstrates how useless CND, and by extension the "progressive" left, is1.Anyway, to set the scene: for years, the Mad Mullahs have been enriching uranium and pissing about on the margin of have-we-enriched-it-enough-to-make-a-bomb-soon. Various meeja have produced article along the lines of "were they actually about to do it now" and all of that is wank; it would be impossible to know; it would be reasonable to not be prepared to leave it as a risk.
So, having conveniently smoothed their local environment, the Front Wheels decided to twat the MMs; naturally, the MMs fired back. As far as I can see, the FWs are using precise targetting, the MMs are using scattershot volleys of imprecise missiles most of which get shot down or tracked into the wilderness. The MMs haven't hit anything significant; the FWs by contrast have taken out a lot of the MMs military infrastructure3, and if nothing unexpected intervenes, will go on to win. Quite what "winning" will look like is unclear. Ideally, a revolution. Failing that, just destruction of all their significant military and nuclear stuff.
Should the USAnians join the fun? They are moving piles of air tankers regionwards which would be expensive if it was but a whim; I wouldn't be astonished if the Mango Mussolini decides that the Kikes are winning, so he should join in late2 and claim all the credit. And I bet the US military would love to know whether their bigger bunker-busters actually work for real. Notice how helpful it is that Russia has exhausted itself in Ukraine and has no strength left to meddle elsewhere; relatedly, Syria is being sensible.
A brief note on negotiations: the MMs were never serious about this, presumably because they would have lost face. Even now they are pissing around insisting on a ceasefire-before-talks, which is stupid. I'm not even sure why they are bothering; the Ks are ignoring them, obvs; the EU are paying attention because they love talking, but the Ks are ignoring the EU too, obvs4.
This post notes that Israel is winning with fighters against a country noted for its drones; whereas the twitterati consensus was that fighters are obsolete in an era of drone warfare. That's not quite fair, because the MM's drones are slow-moving bombs; but it does illustrate the point that drones aren't any use against invisible fighters at altitude and speed and range.
What could go wrong? The MMs could actually scrape enough Pu together to make a bomb; but then they'd have to deliver it, which would be tricky given the ~5% suvival rate of their missiles so that seems quite unlikely. They could amuse themselves targetting ships in the gulf, but that's a quick way to bring the USAnians down on their heads, so probably not a good idea; and anyway in a couple of days they won't even be able to do that.
Notes
1. I was going to belabour exactly why, but realised it woud be pointless.
2. Like wot they always do.
3. This will become fairly obvious as the MMs run out of missiles and launchers over the next few days.
4. 2025/06/21: for sheer po-faced taking ourselves too seriously, you can't beat Aunty's Huge dilemmas lie ahead for UK over Iran. No-one gives a toss but the political class can wank themselves blind over it. But even there they can't help getting it hopelessly wrong: Other sources describe diplomacy as a "sticking plaster", questioning how effective it can be when Israel...; no, you clowns, the problem is that the MMs, who are losing, refuse to talk about the one important thing, their bomb plans.
14 comments:
You criticise CND but you're just talking too. What are outraged people to do - start killing others? FYI I don't have any bunker busting bombs nor am I vile, money grabbing bully. So what should I do???
The genocidal actions of Israel are not an example I want to follow (toddlers, babies, children are terrorist - oh really???). But what am I to do about that also?
The regime in Israel is evil, the one in Iran indistinguishable so, likewise Russia and Saudi Arabia. America's is heading that way. But none of the peoples of those countries are evil.
Sadly, I have learnt how monsters get into power.
Israel's actions are not genocidal; that is an abuse of language that is, regrettably, becoming commonplace. What are you to do if you don't like what they are doing? BBegin by describing them accurately. After that, consider https://mustelid.blogspot.com/2023/11/care-less.html; there is no reason why you should do anything about a remote conflict that does not really concern you.
The Israeli and Iranian regimes are easily distinguishable; as a hint, consider which one you'd be prepared to live under.
Mad Mullahs... Not Genocide... It's clear that you value these people less. Ot's clear that you use the language of racism.
You've done it before. You claimed that your views matched Richard Hanania, a clear racist viewpoint.
"The Israeli and Iranian regimes are easily distinguishable; as a hint, consider which one you'd be prepared to live under."
This kind of 'they're better' view doesn't make their actions ok. It's a really poor logic. Next you'll start rambling about WMD.
' there is no reason why you should do anything about a remote conflict that does not really concern you.'
So why do you? You're a massive hypocrite. You keep cheerleading the Israelis.
N: I disdain your wilder shores of racism and illogic. And I'm not interested in responding to emoting. If you want to avoid stoat-spam, you'll need to moderate your tone. On hypocrisy I disagree: I do not count merely writing down my thoughts as doing something. If I was marching, or even promoting my thoughts, I would count that as a minor thing.
Nathan, at least you're consistent. You were just as obnoxious a decade ago.
I'm sorry William but they are: ' Genocide: the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group.' and that is what we see in Gaza. Are you blind to what has and is going on in Gaza? So blind you threaten to silence those who's opinion you don't like. To watch how you've changed since you started blogging is a shock to me.
Israel has killed thousands of men, women and children in Gaza. It stops people reporting what is going on there too. It's awful and indefensible.
Let me ask you this. What is Iran to do when they don't like what Israel is doing to them? Iran's survival is at stake (in their opinion) so what are they do to if they feel their survival is at risk?
Where would I choose to live? I reply by saying if the choice was between terminal cancer and terminal cancer the choice is not easy is it....I would fight like mad to stay here if I was threatened with living in either country! There are detestably 'mad clerics' in power in both of them. I would risk death at the hands of the state for one word out of place, in the wrong place, in both of them.
N: your comments moved to spam. It gets tedious doing this; any more that I feel the urge to move, I'll just delete. If you want your comments to appear you need to back off, and you don't seem to be very well calibrated. Any questions, put them over there.
Peter: I agree that genocide is "Genocide: the deliberate killing... with the aim of destroying that nation or group". I disagree that the Israelis have any intent of destroying that group. If they actually wanted to, and had the national will to do so, then they would. But they have conspicuously refraimed from doing so. Your definition would have the Pales guilty of genocide, since it stressed intent.
What is Iran to do: you speak as if Iran is one entity. Of course it isn't. It is a people oppressed by a theocracy; as so often, it is easy for those in power to convince the poor oppressed people that they need to support "national honour" in order to stay in power. Just as Hamxs oppresses the Pales. What the people should do, of course, is to overthrow the theocracy. Failing that, Iran should abandon its nukes.
Where would I choose to live?: I think you are being dishonest. If actually forced to choose, you would like all of us choose Israel. "I would risk death at the hands of the state for one word out of place, in the wrong place, in both of them": this is quite wrong; there is an oppostion in Israel, there are routinely anti-government protests.
Oh, and Tom: warning: don't insult other commentators. I'll do that if needed.
"But they have conspicuously refraimed from doing so".
Not sure why you think this... It's a process, it's ongoing...
"I disagree that the Israelis have any intent of destroying that group. "
Members of the Knesset have openly stated this.
So many organisations around the world, have indicated that they think it is going on.
Why are you convinced it isn't?
I am not being dishonest, thank you... There are places in Israel (thinkany illegal settlers) where, if I said a word out of place, I would risk some religious extremist pot shotting me. The same applies to Iran. As a man life in Iran might be bearable, I would detest life in present day Israel but you are asking me to choose between terminal cancers or between being shot and being shot.
I think the 'Pales' would commit genocide and I think Israel is doing the same. I cannot see where they have shown any restraint in Gaza - the places is one big, bloody, starved bombsite...
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