
Stoat
Taking science by the throat...
2025-01-18
In a democracy, when and where should majorities rule?

2025-01-01
The work of disenchantment never ends

* Jan: Sandel: Liberalism and the Limits of Justice.
* Feb: The parable of the Antheap and the Anteater.
* Mar:The burden of thought.
* Apr: There is no human right to a safe or stable climate / Your right to protest.
* May: Your right to lorenorder.
* Jun: The morality of not meddling in other people's business.
* Jul: The Loper's so Bright, I gotta wear shades.
* Aug: France 2024: Orsay, Chamonix, Argeles, Canal du Midi.
* Sep: By the sword you did your work and by the sword you die.
* Oct: The Foundations of Morality.
* Nov: DOGE.
* Dec: The Syrian Experiments.
Refs
* The Partialtarian Corporation.
* On Priesthoods - ACX.
* The media very rarely makes things up.
* Should America Buy Greenland?
* No, Marx Was Not an Important Economist.
* How To Stop Worrying And Learn To Love Lynn's National IQ Estimates - ACX.
* Why A Canada/U.S. Union is a Bad Idea.
Me
Activities this year:
Weight:
2024-12-29
Three easy pieces

Ill did those mightie men to trust thee with their storie,That hast forgot their names, who rear’d thee for their glorie:For all their wondrous cost, thou that hast serv’d them so,What tis to trust to Tombes, by thee we easely know3.
Notes
Refs
2024-12-16
The Syrian Experiments

Refs
2024-11-16
DOGE

The exponential increase of people, money and papers in science is no evidence for an exponential increase in science being done, of course. Partly because if the proportion of scientists as a fraction of people is increasing, their average quality is inevitably going down, and as we all know the best produce a disproportionate amount of what is valuable. But also because - at least I assert this - science is increasingly a job, a career, and while the people doing it will undoubtedly be happy to discover wonderful new things it likely isn't their prime motivation; nor indeed is it the prime motivation of the people employing them. I may be falling victim to the hoary old trope of the Victorian gentleman-scientist motivated purely by curiosity; or I may not. Overall, on this model, there's probably a lot of decent science being done, but quietly, and not necessarily making Nurture. If so, then the vast reams of <stuff that isn't exactly junk, but is just low-quality career-science> isn't doing anyone any great harm.
From that, we move onto DOGE. There are two ways of looking at this, and I think most people are looking at the first and least interesting, which is saving money. And then immeadiately saying "it is pretty hard to save money". Which is true. Most science money, for example, goes on salaries; either of the scientists, or the admin and support staff; if you cut that you'll just have roving homeless packs of feral scientists doing drugs on the streets, which helps no-one. Similar hand-waves apply to social security or medical stuff.
The more interesting stuff is what kicked off Musk in the first place, as it inevitably must, to anyone actually trying to run a company: the vast reams of goverment gumpf that stand in the way of getting anything done.
But rolling that back is hard work, our society has come to love it so much, so many people are beholden to so many special interests who want it continued.
Perhaps if Musk could interest that nice Dominic Cummings he might get somewhere. So I wish him the best but fear for the worst1.
Refs
* The energy transition will be much cheaper than you think.
* How Scientific American's Departing Editor Helped Degrade Science.
* How Industrial Strategy Killed British Industry.
* Link to Twit.
* Peter Schickele / P.D.Q. Bach.
* Inactivity is a choice, not an inevitability in British politics. The projects approved by Labour in its first full week had sat on the desks of Conservative predecessors for months. The Economist.
* No evidence for inequity aversion in non-human animals: a meta-analysis of accept/reject paradigms, Ritov et al..
* Canadian Euthanasia as Moral Progress. Individual liberty, the common good, and human dignity.
* Democracy's Opportunity Cost.
* International school scores comparison.
* 2013: Syria: the West makes the usual mistake; 2015: The UK should not bomb Syria.
* Perhaps US health spending is not so bad after all?
* Around the world, an anti-red-tape revolution is taking hold.
Notes
1. Consider DOGE Can Succeed by Scaling Back Its Ambitions.
2024-10-30
Me on USAnian politics, 2024

Update: the result
Refs
* Elon Musk's Story Highlights Harm Caused by Immigration Restrictions.
* Mission unaccomplished: The British budget combines large numbers and a narrow vision. A bigger state but an irrational way to fund it. Or, the govt as bandits (my take). But on the scale of USAnian politics, just a ripple; the AIM market even rose a little.
* El Econo explains why they (unlike WaPo) do endorse candidates. Their reasoning is somewhat obscure; in their words "To give opinions on policies but not politicians would be odd".
* Noah Smith is sad that "Trumpism systematically appoints the worst people to positions of power, since it prizes *loyalty to a personality cult* above competence and principle". But he doesn't really explain why it is a personality cult. Part is easy: thinking about policy is hard, supporting or hating people is easy. But the hard part - that he doesn't really want to talk about - is the people that see <someone, anyone, oh very well Trump> as a bulwark against the woke-that-is-evil.
* Living in a Post-truth World - Peter Woit.
* Conservatism in Crisis: Rise of the Bureaucratic Class; Kemi Badenoch.
* Johnny Cash - God's Gonna Cut You Down (h/t).
* Just one of many bad takes: Welcome to the American petrostate, Michael E. Mann. Or None of this is meant to imply that most progressive causes are mistaken... in the Graun. Stefan Rahmstorf: it's all the fault of the right wing meeja.
* A collection of great hang-wringing: Trump Didn't Deserve to Win, But We Deserved to Lose.
* PG: Socialists... cherish the idea that the game is rigged so much that they'd rather talk about that than about how to improve their situation.
* The Graun flounces out: Why the Guardian is no longer posting on X.
* Sam Harris on why critique of the media and the establishment must not turn into nihilism, though I now rather regret linking because of his use of "coronated".
* Dear Journalists: Stop Trying to Save Democracy.
* Economath Fails the Cost-Benefit Test.
* The best-case scenario for Trump's second term.
* Disproportionate elite influence saves us from many destructive public opinions (Robin Hanson).
* Why You Should Feel Good About Liberalism (Jonathan Rauch).
* Biden pardons Hunter. Bad; but the kind of thing you expect from pols. I think Biden should have pardoned Trump at the same time, to draw the sting and provide some semblance of impartiality; all the reasons re politically-motivated-prosecution that he gives as excuses apply to the Trump case. Although... Trump is a State crime and the pardon may or may not apply there; the Supremes have never ruled on it. To be fair to Biden though, stuff like Biden professed a willingness to abide by the results of the justice system as a matter of principle is nonsense; he has pardoned a pile of other people already, though fewer than others so far. See-also How To Ban Lame-Duck Pardons. In an effort to pretend that this is nothing unusual, some progressives are just making shit up (and then, when caught, are in the usual way failing to apologise).
* ‘Nobody was tricked into voting for Trump’: Why the disinformation panic is over.
Notes
1. "Cut the applause and dim the light".
2. Although it is arguably in the spirit of the framer's intent, I find it... well, not amusing, but whatevs... that a better candidate than either on offer can be constructed by simply offering to do nothing. I should probably also point out that I've paid very little attention to anything she has said.
3. Or ACX Endorses Harris, Oliver, Or Stein. But that brings in some problems: it reminds me that Trump, if he won, would have had his two terms and not be up for re-election (if you doubt that you need to explicitly argue against it). And it also asserts that Repubs are typically-Trump, which I doubt.
2024-10-23
Sound to hide the broken bone the sunken ship

Refs
2024-10-19
Reason and Morality

Notes
Refs
2024-10-16
Who knew what when, again?

Notes
Refs
2024-10-11
The Foundations of Morality

Other, failed, theories
Morality, Law, Manners
The curious case of Haidt
Notes
Refs
2024-09-21
By the sword you did your work and by the sword you die

Elon Musk’s SpaceX satellites an ‘existential threat to astronomy’ - predictably, all the ideas are "more regulation". There's not even a thought of cost-benefit analysis: is Starlink a better use than radio astronomy? Or even "would we be better off doing this from space?"
Mario Draghi’s best ideas are those Europe finds least comfortable (full report). But his answers are always things like "unify decision-making on public investments" so its all doomed7; the idea of dealing with over-regulation is still-born (he does manage to notice that "innovative firms that want to scale up are hindered by inconsistent and restrictive regulations" but his answer is to unify the regulations, not to think). And as the Economist says, the "recommendations are so numerous that policymakers will be able to pick and choose from among them"; this always happens. As an employee of a USAnian megacorp in the UK, I'm think I'm kinda insulated from the slow death of Yorp.
And then by happy chance, via Xitter, comes Foundations: Why Britain has stagnated. You'll notice, of course, that this compares Britain unfavourably with Yorp, particularly France, so is not perfectly in accord with me; nonetheless it is well-reasoned.
Update
[2024/10/02] Since I wrote the above the popcorn vendors have been making out like bandits. There's no shortage of talking heads proffering their foolishness, so I'll try to avoid adding much more. One notable theme has been of the "oh you know getting into these wars is very very dangerous" variety, written by idiots sat in comfortable arm chairs to be read by idiots sicac6, as though the Israelis who are actually risking their lives haven't thought of it; a sort-of variant on Dumb America. When done by e.g. Al-Jazmagi it's whistling in the wind / what their base want to hear; when done by the West it is more, I think, "intellectuals" desperate to be relevant in a time of soldiers (this seems to be a more decent assessment, though still somewhat pro-H; notice that what has happened wasn't on their list of possibilities). As I write this the Mad Mullahs have flung a pile of missiles at the kikes to little obvious effect5 but seems likely to provoke interesting consequences. I don't have a good feel for what will happen, but let me attempt a prognostication just to show how wrong I can be: the Israelis will hit Iran, taking out air defences (quite likely with US help), missile sites, and some of the nuke programme, and a token hit on oil facilities. And if they have any sense, take out their navy including the spy ship that helps the Houthis.
[2024/10/04] Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed that Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza will emerge with new leaders and will not back down says the Graun; this is convenient if you were under any illusion that Hammy or Hezzy were independent entities; but no, Iran speaks for them. He continued "the brilliant action of our armed forces a couple of nights ago was completely legal and legitimate”... any nation had the right to defend its soil and its interests in the face of aggressors. And yet it isn't clear to me how flinging a pile of missiles at Israel was helping defend his Iran; since the near-inevitable consequence is Israel attacking Iran, it might be the reverse.
[2024/10/08] Astonishingly, the Beeb manages Siniora is unflinching in his assessment of Lebanon’s lost sovereignty. "Practically, Lebanon as a state has been kidnapped by Hezbollah. And behind Hezbollah is Iran. They make up for that brief interlude of sanity by hiding it under a blame-misattributing headline of "Lebanon abandoned by international community - ex PM". And another note: from the Economist, which tracks attacks in Lebanon, I see that Hezbollah attacks on Israel haven't gone down, counting raw numbers. The Israeli incursion won't be a success until it goes to ~zero [2025/01/01: well they now have a ceasefire so yes the Israelis succeeded].
[2024/10/18] 'Death of Hamas mastermind' and One Direction tribute to 'brother' Liam: another one bites the dust. And I love the irony that in the fat Cold West, we can't tell the difference between news and entertainment. Without Sinwar, as the Economist notes, there is some hope for change. The Pales could even see sense and surrender; it can't be much of a life being Hamas, after all; even fanaticism must have limits. But hopefully not before Israel twats the Iranian nooks. Speaking of the Mad Mullahs, they say "the spirit of resistance will be strengthened", which is exactly what would be bad for the Pales, but then the MMs never had Pale welfare at heart, only their own weird theocratic objectives.
[2024/10/26] The Israelis seem to have gone for the minimalist reply against Iran; mostly air defneces, following step one in the std.us playbook; and some missile production sites. This is somewhat disappointing, especially for the popcorn vendors. And the MMs seem to have gone for "that didn't hurt much" instead of getting Really Angry so likely all will go quiet for a bit on that front. But it must gall the MMs that the only thing that keeps the Israelis off them is US pressure; they have no ability to defend themselves; consider for contrast the laughable idea that the MMs might try to bomb Israel from the air.
[2024/11/27] The ceasefire in Lebanon doesn’t ensure a lasting victory for Israel, but does signal a strategic setback for Iran sez the Graun.
Notes
1. Absurdly, Wiki's article on "live by the sword" insists that the quote is biblical, despite the play preceeding the New Testament by centuries. I tried to correct them but they wouldn't listen.
2. Despite this being the bleedin' obvious, which I said in June, the fuckwitted meeja still haven't realised. Update: this is a fine example: Lebanon's economy minister Amin Salam says "It is very clear if we decide, or if Hezbollah decides, or the whole country decides to take a big risk and gamble more in this war, we will be paying a very, very, very big price that will take Lebanon to a very difficult place, and it will take many, many years to get back from that place". So, errm, why not decide not to take that risk? Why not decide not to fight? The answer, of course, is that he is unable to say "oh shit we have no control of Hezbollah we wish they'd all fuck off but if I say that they'll kill me".
I find, belatedly, "the one responsible for the fire from Lebanon is not only Hezbollah or the terrorist elements that carry it out, but also the government of Lebanon and the Lebanese state that allows the shooting from its territory" from csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah.
3. Holy Shiite Batman: the Graun actually quotes someone saying "Get the official Lebanese army on the ground on the Israel Lebanon border – not Hezbollah not Iran – get state authority back into the south Lebanon border." Admittedly, buried in other ideas and obvs the Graun doesn't take this up, but even a brief interlude of sanity is welcome.
4, More [2024/09/26] shitty reporting from Politico; the bit they're missing is the obvious: Hezbollah refusing to accept a ceasefire (and no, the fuckwitted tying it to Gaza isn't sane).
5. Ironically, the only reported fatality is "Sameh al-Asali, a 37-year-old Palestinian from Gaza living in the occupied West Bank". However - correctly IMO - people are regarding it as a serious attack.
6. There's plenty of that in The Economist; just recently they seem to change their tune somewhat with What Hamas misunderstood about the Middle East.
7. Others have also noticed this.
Refs
* Against Censorship and Its Academic Supporters.
* Galileo Galilei vs The Holy Roman Catholic Church – Round: 5555555555…………
*Preliminary Milei Report Card - ACX.
* SLS is still a national disgrace.
* "In light of the wars and crises that threaten Arab and regional security, we have no choice but to restore the concept of the nation-state and respect its independence and sovereignty. The era of militias with its sectarian and regional dimensions has cost the Arabs dearly and burdened the region. The future is for security, peace and prosperity with an independent Arab project reconciled with its surroundings" take that, Hezzy and Hammy.
* Who is really in charge of Lebanon?
* Conservatives Are Lying on Immigrant Crime.
* Compendium of Writings on the October 7 War and Western Reactions to it (including Far-Left Support for Hamas is not an Aberration).
2024-09-06
When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down?

Refs
2024-08-15
Good news on photovoltaics, perhaps

Refs
2024-07-22
Book review: A Heritage of Stars

Refs
2024-07-02
The Loper's so Bright, I gotta wear shades

Refs
Notes
2024-06-28
Mayflies
