2026-03-09

Yanquis and Kikes twat the Mad Mullahs

649543413_1475928310566382_5818415866228156281_n So it finally happened: the MM ran out of patience and decided to twat the MMs, though this was perhaps a little late for the tens of thousands already killed by the regime. There is of course a vast backstory on all this, see for example Reflections on recent events in the Middle East, but perhaps recent events in South America are also relevant.

Ilya Somin thinks Donald Trump's Iran War is Unconstitutional and he is likely to be correct, in principle. However both House and Senate have rejected stop-the-war resolutions, and the armed forces are obeying their commander, so there is no practical constraint1. And as long as nothing terrible happens - a large number of USAnians killed, or the price of petrol staying high for too long, the horror - I doubt the public cares enough to matter.

I'm in favour of this war, at least, when compared to all other practical courses of action or inaction. Diplomacy was obviously a waste of time, no matter how many highly paid high status elites it kept in lucrative employment. I opposed the Iraq war at the time, by actually bothering to go and protest, but I think far too many commentators are too ready to relearn the lessons of the last war: blah blah quagmire blah vague objectives blah and so on. Richard Hanania suggests that Killing bad people is an achievable goal that the US is good at and probably has positive effects on the world. We should do it more often, and do much less of many other aspects of foreign policy, and that seems reasonable. The most likely outcome is a weakened Iran, left with essentially no missile stockpiles or production facilities for same, and less capacity to export terrorism. The good outcome is the MMs get overthrown. The bad outcome is... I dunno: we take out some more schools, a pile of Iranian drones get through and destroy major infractructure and kill piles of Yanquis, and we retreat in confusion? Perhaps you, dear reader, can think of a plausible bad outcome; da meeja certainly hasn't presented any. Note how convenient it is that the Ivans are stuck in the quagmire of their own creation and are far too weak to cause any mischief.

Screenshot 2026-03-09 203749 Doing all this in violation of international law is something I covered in Reflections2. But I'd add that coming from the lawyer-heavy UK, where nothing can be done, I feel that the time has come, if not to kill all the lawyers, at least not to leave them in charge.

It becomes ever more obvious to me - as I think I said in Poling Pales - how central the Iranian poison is to the problems of the Middle East and how much better off the region - and of course even more so the people of Iran - would be, if they just settled down to tend their own garden.

Updates


I expect things to continue to evolve...

2026/3/10: The Economist tells us that "Donald Trump must stop soon" and this is the kind of armchair-warrior stuff that is in a way amusing, in its combination of taking-itself-oh-so-seriously and total irrelevance. But it is a good source for the common complaint that Trump needs to "define what you want to achieve". I don't think that's true: the general direction is of course clear, and Trump has said that he'd like to end up with regime change, but I see no reason why that should be a firmly-fixed objective. If it turns out to be really hard, why should he really be obliged to keep pounding away? Continuing, "War aims direct the campaign" and this is true but pointless: the initial aim was to take out the top MM; then destroy Iranian military infrastructure, and so on and so forth; and these aims dictate the current actions, regardless of the final aims. "Strategically, his failure to say what Epic Fury is for is its biggest vulnerability" is bullshit.

Screenshot_20260313-123004 2026/3/13: The Iranian regime has been the number one threat to peace and stability in the Middle East for years. U.S. forces continue to try to fix that, by pushing them into the number two spot. Well, that's how I read it on a first pass. Meanwhile, Brent crude is hovering around $100 per barrel, which is regrettable. I think the Yanquis should, and likely will, do something about that. Mostly, twatting the bits of Iran likely to attack shipping.


2026/3/18: It’s getting to the point where if you’re an Iranian official and Israel hasn’t killed you yet it’s a bit insulting.

Screenshot 2026-03-23 151131 2026/3/23: the YK's are still bombing stuff, but the MMs or their agents are still flinging stuff back, though at a reduced rate. Most importantly, the Straits of Hormuz are not seeing a lot of traffic, leading to... volatility in the price of oil; cue panic from the meeja3. Personally, I go for the MMs running out of ammo before much longer, but perhaps that's an ill-defined time period. Let's say within a week.

2026/3/25: the Economist is sad that markets aren't melting down in the way el Econo thinks they should.

Refs


* The Anti-War Argument Is Actually a Pro-War Argument: One does not wait to attack an irrational actor while it gets more powerful.
War and Oil. With nice futures charts.
Miscellanea: The War in Iran - I include this as an unwise overly pessimistic take that I might analyse sometime.

Notes



2. Another attempt to "defend" int'l law comes from Alex Tabarrok: but notice his confused defence: Per the Constitution, treaties are the supreme law of the United States. International law is not liberal wishful thinking it’s US law.

3. E.g. "Oil back above $100 a barrel..." from Auntie; note that was "Updated 35 minutes ago" and yet they hadn't updated the (false at that point) headline.

11 comments:

Tom said...

If you think it is justifiable then you Brits should have done it yourselves. I am against this war. Not because of what it does to the Iranian regime--they are thugs who deserve what comes to them. But because of what it does to us. (We Mercans.) We do not need any more desensitizing to human life. Hey--you won the Falklands war! Go get 'em!

William M. Connolley said...

What we Brits do is largely irrelevant except for the visuals; I think Starmer looks as rubbish as ever; we will have disappointed anyone in the States paying any attention, which is likely few.

We discussed "what it does to us" last time; I agree with the overall sentiment, but am (a) doubtful that it applies this time; and (b) find it perhaps a little selfish of you; too "America First". Are you not prepared to suffer some pain to help the world?

Tom said...

Yes, of course--and I like to think that I do try to help the world (haven't suffered too much yet, but a little, sure.) But I prefer to make informed choices about the contributions I make--not hand over the power to an insane autocrat. Trump would f**k up a wet dream. He had to dismantle his 'charity' due to kleptocratic mismanagement. I would not want him to direct any efforts helping the world and I am a bit skeptical that any efforts he expends in that direction will prove fruitful.

William M. Connolley said...

You appear to be reasoning that "Trump is bad therefore the war must be bad" but that is invalid.

Tom said...

Actually, no. I think that Trump is bad. I also think this war is bad. Not because I want the Iranian regime to carry on, but because as is always the case, Trump chooses the most idiotic and inhumane ways to prosecute the war. No coalition of the willing. No warnings to civilians. Indiscriminate bombing of Tehran. No plan of action for the straits of Hormuz. He refused to accept Ukraine's offer of drone interceptors three months prior to the invasion. He's a moron. His motivation for this war is not to help Iranians. It is to distract from the Epstein files, a la Wag the Dog.

William M. Connolley said...

"Indiscriminate bombing of Tehran" is obviously wrong (by which I mean it isn't happening; your statement misrepresents reality. Not that it is occurring, and is morally wrong). It isn't at all clear to me that trying to corral a "willing" coalition together would have helped at all. And I think your analysis is weak. The question isn't "are things being done worse than they could be?" but "is the war better than the status quo?".

Tom said...

Imagine a world where the US and its allies had materially supported the protestors two months prior, had blocked Iranian sea traffic, strengthened sanctions, etc. The regime was at the point of failure at that point in time. There was no need for a decapitation strike at that point. If Mossad had targeted IRGC logistics instead of worrying about phantom uranium, they could have crippled the Iranian response to the protestors. I'm no military strategist and much of what I write can be very wrong. But there were sane alternatives to what Trump did.

Nathan said...

"Are you not prepared to suffer some pain to help the world?"

So when will you go and fight? Or, like Trump, are you willing to sacrifice people to achieve your aim, without making your own sacrifice?

It's not you that will suffer...


"is the war better than the status quo?".

No. It isn't.

Is Libya better now? Afghanistan? Did the war in Iraq stop terrorism? Was the Syrian war 'worth it'? Is Lebanon better after the invasions? It's naïve to think Iran will be better for having a few dozen leaders killed.

William M. Connolley said...

> like Trump, are you willing to sacrifice people
Trump isn't keen to sacrifice USAnians, and doesn't have to: the war is pretty safe for them. So were it useful I'd be happy to go along and help.

I think you're too ready to re-learn the lessons of the last war, as I said; even Trump has done better than that. But specifically:
> Is Libya better now?
I dodge that one.
> Afghanistan? Did the war in Iraq stop terrorism?
Those two were both badly managed - the aftermath I mean; in both cases the initial military assaults were very successful.
> Was the Syrian war 'worth it'?
That one isn't really our war; but the recent revolution has definitely improved things, aided obvs by the Ivan's inability to fuck things up now that they are tied up elsewhere.
> Is Lebanon better after the invasions?
Yes.
> It's naïve to think Iran will be better for having a few dozen leaders killed.
I think that's wrong; there is - or was at the start - a reasonable probability that decapitation would work.

Nathan said...

What's amazing, and telling, is that you think my 'sacrifice people' comment only applies to Americans.

When is the sacrifice in Human lives too much?

when is the economic cost too much?

"I think that's wrong; there is - or was at the start - a reasonable probability that decapitation would work."
How did you calculate this probability?


So Libya doesn't count, or Afghanistan and Iraq? These counterfactuals just vanish because 'in both cases the initial military assaults were very successful.'

And Lebanon is better after all the invasions? Wow... That's what precipitated the formation of Hezbollah...

Curious to hear what sacrifice is too much, and why the lives of non-Americans don't count as a sacrifice.

Nathan said...

I must also point out that this: "So were it useful I'd be happy to go along and help.:
Is so utterly empty... Completely unbelievable.