Ukraine: prospects

PXL_20221213_090615534 I hoped in The Evil Empire strikes that the plucky Ukrainians remain plucky, and stall the Russkies for long enough for the assault to fall apart; this does not seem implausible. And that seems to have happened. The EE's attack on Kyiv failed; and it has lost Kharkiv and Kherson. But what next? The Economist provides an example of the kind of pile of words I could write, but won't, since it doesn't really go anywhere.

The EE is currently making joke offers of talks, but on no clear terms, and I can't find anything that makes any real proposals: articles tend to suggest the EE wants recognition of the "annexed" territories, possibly as a precondition and possibly not, but  they are obviously not serious. The Ukrainians are currently feeling on a roll and in no mood to offer concessions. The obvious meet-in-the-middle proposal would be that the EE retreat to the 2014 lines. Unfortunately that would make the entire current war a waste of time from the EE side, and hence not acceptable to them; meanwhile on the Ukraine-is-on-a-roll side they're not about to pass up the possible chance to regain Crimea etc, so not acceptable to them either. Neither side at the moment is interested in talks. What might change that? On either side, military losses; at the moment, that looks more likely to be the EE, but time will tell.

The nice Ukrainians initially pushed the EE back from Kyiv and so on by themselves, but after that the West has stepped in with arms and probably more covert help. Continuing Ukrainian resistance, and even more, continuing hopes of further advance are likely contingent on continued help from the West. Viewed from the strategic plans of West, having the EE bleeding out1 in Ukraine looks like a success I'd guess (I don't talk to these people every day you understand) and severely blunts the chances of them trying anything elsewhere. That's not so great news for the individual Ukrainians shivering in the dark cos the EE have knocked out their power grid, but I don't see any realistic way we can help with that. As far as can be told they prefer that to the "peace" that would come from conquest by the EE, and I think I'd choose the same (err, but I'm happy not to have to so chose).

On the home front, it is cold, but we seem to be surviving the unexpected implicit carbon tax, despite Atlas Shrugged levels of political competence; see-also The story of VaccinateCA.


Ukraine: Work as if you live in the early days of a better nation; Feb 2014.

No Deal: How Politics Really Works - Caplan


1. That sounds, and to be honest is, pretty harsh and unfeeling. In partial recompense: the people losing most in this are those dying, on both sides. Because the EE is the aggressor, I offer less sympathy to their cannon fodder, but I am aware that many of them don't want to be fighting, are only fighting because they have nothing else to do, or because they've been fooled into believing at least some of the lies from the EE. Which is to say, that the entire war is stupid, and run for the benefit of the elites, not the proles: no new news there. I blame the EE's Uruk's to the extent that they really should know better.


Anonymous said...

Help with power grid: ship LED bulbs to Ukraine.

Tom said...

Not to give you unnecessary compliments, but your summary is streets ahead of the Economist, a publication that has become a turgid purveyor of the conventional wisdom. Sigh... been reading that longer than I've been reading you, so I guess I'll keep my subscription going.

Now how do you feel about the German banking sector? You could compete with the big E.

Tom said...

Sorry about that. Kept getting error messages.... sigh...

William M. Connolley said...

Tom: I deleted your dupes. Thanks for the compliment, I must try monetising myself somehow :-).

Anon: I just give them money (via DEC) and let them choose how to spend it.

Tom said...

Write a book. I did, borrowing heavily from blog posts and comments. The Lukewarmer's Way. It did pretty well.

Anteros said...

Are comments disabled on the 'Have we reached peak emissions yet?' post? I left a couple of innocuous, almost identical ones, but they haven't appeared.

William M. Connolley said...

Bollox. I've just approved your comments, apologies for the delay.

I discover a pile of other things in the moderation queue: Blogger doesn't email me about them, it would appear, which is somewhat rubbish.

I'll do a separate post on those, because it seems only fair.