They are openly admitting they have no intention of trying to slow climate change?

79756170_1337096576486659_3664121601915355136_n More anguished twatting about oil companies: ExxonMobil’s 2019 Outlook for Energy predicts “no reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector through 2040—and no date at which emissions reach net zero”. They are openly admitting they have no intention of trying to slow climate change.

This is just a dumb category error, confusing predictions with intentions. The obvious analogy is with IPCC / SRES (or whatever replaces SRES; see how out of date I am): just because the IPCC predicts / projects future CO2 emissions increasing doesn't imply they have no intention of helping reduce them.

Exxon's outlook for energy - which, obviously, I haven't read; see-also ExxonMobil: Positioning for a Lower-Carbon Energy Future? - is their best-guess at the future. It's them trying to read the tea-leaves, guess what will happen, what people will want, how the idiot pols will fuck things up, and so on. All of that occurs within a political and societal context, which they're trying to guess. But asking them to be in control of that context is ridiculous. And do people really want Evil Fossil Fuel Companies in control? Of course not.

Society is a big complex self-organising institution with some top-level control from govt, usually done badly. Within that various instituions like EFFCs operate in response to people's desires. If you want what they do to change you need to change your desires. Saying you want lower CO2 emissions and then flying off to COP25 is about as much use as a fat man saying he wants to be thin while still scoffing all the pies - see-also Climate chickenhawks. You should pay more attention to what people and pols do, rather than what they say. the key phrase is "revealed preferences". If you want EFFCs to count the SCC, then impose a carbon tax.

My appropriate picture shows the Angel of God chaining the demon of Lust. Jan Steen ~ ca.1660. Museum Bredius. See wiki for the full pic and full story, which is weird.


Tom said...

I don't think Exxon could dent future emissions even if they shut their doors and took up knitting instead of fossil fuel extraction.

Everett F Sargent said...

Still looking for a 'free' copy of the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2019. I have 2017 (found a 'free' copy less than a week ago) and I found their 2018 edition several month's ago. All prior (2015 and before) are now available directly from the IEA's website.

I am mainly interested in their Current Policies Scenario (or CPS).

Willing to trade or otherwise at my screen name (lower case no spaces) at gmail dot com. TIA

Everett F Sargent said...

"(2015 and before)" should be "(2016 and before)"