Prospects for Peace

In the Middle East that is; the Russian invasion of Ukraine is doomed to grind on for longer I fear; more on that anon. Trump has a cunning plan, and Netenyahu has accepted it¹; Hamxs's rather delayed response is "yes, but"², as expected; Trump the eternal optimist³ thinks that things are going well.

Talks, as ever, continue. But while they do I have a chance to predict the future and get it wrong⁶, so everyone can tell me how wrong I was. Do you have a better prediction? Leave it in the comments⁵.

Hamxs is soaked in blood and has no function beyond terrorism, or resistance as they would put it; agreeing to disarm would be organisational suicide, so I don't see that happening. Looking at the plan, the actionable timeline appears to be:

* If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.

* Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned.

* Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after 7 October 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.

So nominally (a) both agree; (b) fighting stops, some kind of withdrawl; (c) within 72 hours all hostages released; (d) Israel releases some terrorists. I find myself doubtful that Hamxs will go for (c). The hostages are useless to them, indeed a millstone round their neck, but they have been too stupid to see that in the past and I don't see them getting any clearer in their thinking.

What of other instances where long-term terrorists have given up? The obvious analogue is Ireland, where the IRA eventually gave up. There were key differences though: mostly, the conflict was embedded in civil society on both sides; and the world was obviously just passing it by; the public and the world was not egging them on⁴. This was organisational suicide for the IRA but not for the individual members, a possible model for Hamxs, but the situations are not really analogous.

Speaking of the public egging them on, and referencing Polling Pales, there's an updated poll from May. Whether it can be trusted I leave you to decide for yourself; I'll discuss it as though it can be. I'll start with killed-and-injured, because it is good news: the proportion of families with killed-or-injured has gone down; only slightly, but definitely. This is remarkable.

The report doesn't think it is remarkable, because it doesn't remark on it. It is not impossible of course: if you manage to wipe out enough entire families, it could happen. But more likely it is either inaccuracies, or sampling errors, or people lying, or whatever⁷. 

A solid majority remain delusional: A majority of 56% (65% in the West Bank 42% in the Gaza Strip) expect Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement in a few days while 41% do not expect that. That's essentially the same as a year previous. On the plus side, 48% of Gazans... say they support the demonstrations that took place over the past two months in the Gaza Strip demanding that Hamas abandon control over that Strip so there may be some hope. About 50% would be willing to emigrate; I would say that's a good solution if it were possible to find somewhere to take them. And (fig 17) armed struggle is now less popular than negotiations, at least in Gaza; the West Bank, which sees rather less armed struggle, prefers to fight.

Overall I think that agreement leading to release of the hostages is unlikely for now, whilst hoping that I am wrong.

Returning to reporting of yer conflict, Aunty says Hamxs wants to keep enough firepower to defend itself against Palestinians who want to take their revenge for nearly two decades of brutal rule and the catastrophe the Hamas attacks brought down on them.

Not really fitting into my flow of text, but I feel I ought to say the obvious: the claims of Israeli genocide are bollox and mostly malicious.

Notes

1. As far as I can tell, unconditionally. He has subsequently said things that make this somewhat hard to square, but nonetheless the words "I support your plan to end the war in Gaza which achieves our war aims" (or their Hebrew equivalent? The meeja is really appalling at providing full information) have been uttered.

2. Actually it is far more complicated than that with various factions disagreeing, and Hamxs's actual words being so ambiguous as to be close to meaningless, as expected. The fat corrupt political types living in luxury in Qatar are naturally keen to continue their fat lives, though the recent bombing may have reminded them that they don't get a free pass; the menwithgunz in Gaza have no lives other than terrorism, so are unlikely to want to turn into unemployable ex-terrorists at peace.

3. You will correctly object that Trump is also an eternal liar and uninterested in distinguishing true from false, but I think that he is also genuinely optimistic, like many such.

4. Indeed, I imagine most of the IRA's wives and mothers were urging them to give up. Shamefully, now, useless deluded folks in the West are still egging the Pales on. These people need to find meaning in their own lives, rather than other people's conflicts.

5. Speaking of comments, do try to avoid getting yourself spammed. Repeat offenders will just be suppressed.

6. 2025/10/09: Initial reports are promising and (10/10) a ceasefire appears to be in effect. 10/11: ceasefire still seems to be in place, but "Hamas hasn’t changed. It still believes that weapons and violence are the only means to keep its movement alive". Joy in Israel and Gaza but not amongst the "progressive" in the West. 10/14: Pales behaving badly: part 1, part 2, part 3. Hamxs have now released the hostages they haven't killed, but not the ones they have killed; this bad-faith slow-walking isn't promising.

7. Another interesting discrepancy: see this X post and the corresponding Graun article: the male / female death rate inferred from orphancy is 6, not the 3 reported by Hamxs.

Refs

* A Muslim faith leader calls for stronger moral leadership in the Middle East?

* Care less / The Struggle / History is Bunk.

* Country capture.

* In Defence of War.

* Reflections on recent events in the Middle East.

* By the sword you did your work and by the sword you die.

* The Syrian Experiments.

* Might is Right.

* Bioethics: Tuskegee vs. COVID.

* Blackout: A Look into the Iberian Blackout.

* Disagreeing with not discussing race and IQ.

* Bring Back the Internet Gatekeepers says RH. I remain doubtful (in general; I will of course moderate here as the spirit moves me).

* "A whole lot of BS political views basically amount to assuming that life in our hard won civilisations is just the way things are, and that you can simply remove the foundations".

* Will the absence of robotaxis in Europe mark the moment its citizens notice how far their continent has fallen behind?

* ACX Grants Results 2025.

* A Surprisingly Good Nobel Prize in Economics.

* "Gaza is awash with guns and desperate people, and Hamas has no interest in relinquishing its weapons. More repression and chaos may await the devastated strip": El Econo.

* Ecstasy and Amnesia in the Gaza Strip.

* PA condemns Hamas executions as ‘heinous crimes’.

* Debunking the Genocide Allegations: A Reexamination of the Israel-Hamas War from October 7, 2023 to June 1, 2025. Danny Orbach, Jonathan Boxman, Yagil Henkin, Jonathan Braverman.

* Free Trade and Dynamic Efficiency.

* Understanding Decarbonization by RP Jr.